Recent content by philostam

Trump's 3d chess.

One of the best things about economics and finance is that while it's not a science, it's actually quite empirical. If you have a bad idea, the market will tell you. The bond market is telling Trump the idea of raising revenues trough tariffs is BS and it's not gonna work. In fact it looks more...

I am more perplexed that you just figured out the concept of fractional reserve banking in 2025 after it's been around for all of our lifetime? Putting that aside, yeah commercial banks can also increase the money supply along with the central bank. That's why the FED can set interest rates...

Like I say, I am reserving judgement. I don't think that everyone distrusts China. Places like Indonesia are actually not afraid of China at all, most people don't know that Indonesia bullies China quite a lot when it comes to trade and China just takes it. They have a mutually beneficial...

Markets went higher when Trump was elected so majority was positioned that way. Trump = good for markets. He may have talked about reciprocal tariffs but no one knew they are gonna be so crazy that they are not reciprocal at all, they are sometimes 10x higher than the actual tariffs from the...

I didn't see any Kamala voter who told anyone Trump would be bad for the markets. It was all about abortion, that he's a rapist, new Hitler, doesn't respect the rule of law... Turns out that was all red herring and now it's about the markets and economic crash. Kudos to you if you predicted...

Tariffs don't open the markets, they create more friction across the board. Yes in theory it does incentivize domestic production and manufacturing, but that's "just" taking the capital away that could've gone into stocks lol. It's a messed up situation, in the long run I agree with you, but we...

The "you voted for this" part is not really fair. Tariffs was not something that most voters cared so much and it was much bigger part of his rhetoric in 2016. This time it was more about immigration, inflation, bringing the deficits down. Most people just assumed he'd be good for the markets...

I kinda think Trump is cooked already. I don't think even he has the minerals to deal with the consequences of what he started. He'll probably pivot soon and just do what Kamala/Biden would have done while talking up how we'll bring jobs back and it'll take time etc etc. Musk on the other hand...

Trade war is one thing, and I believe US has the upper hand. But the flip side is capital war, where rest of the world has the leverage. They don't need to blindly shove money in to US assets anymore, and they can even sell what they have. Then what? It's not even clear that US has the tech/AI...

We'll see about this. Investors have a Pavlovian "buy the dip" reaction that they learned over the last 40, and especially last 10 years, but if the Trump cabinet is serious about re-shoring US manufacturing and reducing US trade deficit, that's not good for US stocks. At the very least there's...

If multi millionaires get extra 200k, this will generally not lead to inflation of goods and services because their propensity to consume is low. They can already afford all the things they want. Most of that 200k will go to savings or investment. This is kinda what QE does, it increases the...

There's a difference between asset prices inflation and inflation of goods and services. Between 2010-2020 the inflation of goods and services was relatively low despite the fact that we "printed" a lot of money. It depends who gets this money. If the FED purchases a lot of bonds from the market...

Yes, I am leaning more on this side. TBH I have been all over the place. The best analogy I heard was someone saying that Trump is using a shotgun to get a root canal. I underestimated how far he would go, and the funny thing is no one from his cabinet (except that Navarro guy) is taking any...

Also, deflationary economic system could work if our economies weren't so indebted. If prices went 2% down every year, you would still need to eat, go to the gym, hang out with friends, buy phones, computers, cars etc. So there would still be economic demand to buy stuff, just on the margin...