Recent content by philostam

That might be so, but the oil markets always spike when there's an actual (threat of) war. Check the price of oil in the weeks and months after Russia invaded Ukraine. The "nothing ever happens" razor was sharp again. We can now say that US bombing of Iran was tremendous success. No boots on...

Oil down 7% on the day lol. Markets are speaking...

I would again disagree here. Pre-announced attack with no casualties. Something similar happened last summer when Israel and Iran were launching pre-announced rockets at each other and intercepting them. And then, as now, Iran was sending terrifying threats with no follow up. It's all about...

News just in... MUTED OIL REACTION SUGGESTS HORMUZ BLOCKADE UNLIKELY Oil prices rose only slightly after U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, reflecting market belief that a Strait of Hormuz blockade is unlikely. Brent and WTI crude rose about 1%, with analysts calling the limited reaction...

All I am saying is...I don't want Iran to have nuclear weapons. They are a terrible, radical regime. If this attack was successful in preventing/delaying them, then I am happy. Who threw the first punch is also questionable. We could trace the escalations back a long way. Also this is not two...

I personally find the justification for this bombing reasonable. This is not boots on the ground kinda deal. I would oppose US sending military to Iran, but I am quite sure that will not happen. Iran has limited options. They threatened 10+ times in the last 20 years with closing the strait of...

Good process, lads

Trump's 3d chess.

One of the best things about economics and finance is that while it's not a science, it's actually quite empirical. If you have a bad idea, the market will tell you. The bond market is telling Trump the idea of raising revenues trough tariffs is BS and it's not gonna work. In fact it looks more...

I am more perplexed that you just figured out the concept of fractional reserve banking in 2025 after it's been around for all of our lifetime? Putting that aside, yeah commercial banks can also increase the money supply along with the central bank. That's why the FED can set interest rates...

Like I say, I am reserving judgement. I don't think that everyone distrusts China. Places like Indonesia are actually not afraid of China at all, most people don't know that Indonesia bullies China quite a lot when it comes to trade and China just takes it. They have a mutually beneficial...

Markets went higher when Trump was elected so majority was positioned that way. Trump = good for markets. He may have talked about reciprocal tariffs but no one knew they are gonna be so crazy that they are not reciprocal at all, they are sometimes 10x higher than the actual tariffs from the...

I didn't see any Kamala voter who told anyone Trump would be bad for the markets. It was all about abortion, that he's a rapist, new Hitler, doesn't respect the rule of law... Turns out that was all red herring and now it's about the markets and economic crash. Kudos to you if you predicted...

Tariffs don't open the markets, they create more friction across the board. Yes in theory it does incentivize domestic production and manufacturing, but that's "just" taking the capital away that could've gone into stocks lol. It's a messed up situation, in the long run I agree with you, but we...

The "you voted for this" part is not really fair. Tariffs was not something that most voters cared so much and it was much bigger part of his rhetoric in 2016. This time it was more about immigration, inflation, bringing the deficits down. Most people just assumed he'd be good for the markets...