Derek Twigg (Halton) (Lab)
I agree with the Foreign Secretary that we should be cautious about these latest developments, but does he believe that Assad is now in a stronger position than he was six months ago?
Mr Hammond
In military terms, certainly. The Russian intervention has prevented the collapse of regime forces, has restored morale among regime forces, has allowed the regime to take ground, consolidate positions, move forces around in a strategically significant way, and has damaged and demoralised opposition groups. There is no doubt at all about that. If there is a genuine withdrawal of Russian air cover, the question is how long that improvement can be sustained, because we know that the Syrian regime forces are fundamentally hollowed out after five years of civil war, and without the Russians there to stiffen their spine it is not clear how long they will be able to maintain the initiative.
Mr Jonathan Djanogly (Huntingdon) (Con)
Assuming that the Russian withdrawal does take place—I understand there is no certainty in that—will UK and US air forces take over Russian targets against Daesh with the intention of ensuring that there is no reduction in the intensity of action against Daesh as a result of Russian withdrawal?
Mr Hammond
I do not think I can comment at the Dispatch Box on what will drive US and UK targeting decisions, but I can say this. The Russian air force operates largely within a part of Syria that is heavily protected by the Syrian integrated air defence system. The Russians can fly there because they are operating in what is for them a permissive environment, not least because Russian technicians control the Syrian air defence system. It would not be the same for US, UK and other coalition partners. I do not think there can be an assumption that western members of the coalition will be able to take over all the targeting activity against Daesh that is currently being carried out by the Russians.
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Helen Whately (Faversham and Mid Kent) (Con)
The intervention by Russia in Syria was a surprise to the west, and this withdrawal, if it is genuine, is also a surprise. Russia’s interventions have been unhelpful but influential. Can my right hon. Friend advise me what steps we can take and are taking with our allies to stop Russia setting the agenda in Syria?
Mr Hammond
That is a good question and a very difficult one to answer. All the western partners in this enterprise play by the rules of the international system and are transparent about their intentions. We had a debate in this Parliament—a discussion that went on for a couple of years before we got to the point of deciding to engage in airstrikes in Syria. The entire world knew about the debate in the UK and where the fault lines were in that debate. Unfortunately, Russia is a state in which all power is concentrated in the hands of one man. There is not even a politburo any more, just a single man. Decisions are made apparently arbitrarily, without any advance signalling and, as we are now seeing, can be unmade just as quickly. That is not a recipe for enhancing stability and predictability on the international scene. It makes the world a more dangerous place, not a less dangerous place.
Mark Durkan (Foyle) (SDLP)
The Foreign Secretary is right not to seek to spin Putin’s announcement, but to wait for sound evidence. If, however, it does serve to recondition some of Assad’s assumptions about the negotiations, and if it also means that elements in the opposition feel a bit more encouraged about the worth of their purpose in the negotiations, should we not take the opportunity to make the dialogue more inclusive, not least in respect of women? I note that the UN special envoy met the women’s advisory group at the weekend.
Mr Hammond
Yes, our intention is that the dialogue should be inclusive, representative of all faith groups and all ethnicities within Syria, and also representative of civil society including, of course, women. We should not forget that before this horror started, Syria was, bizarrely, one of the most “liberal” countries in the middle east in terms of tolerance of religious minorities, tolerance of secular behaviour, and the role of women and their participation in society, the professions and employment. We would certainly need to get back to that as Syria re-normalises in the future
