Prediction: Gay Marriage Will Fail

[Satya]

It is clear that the tide has turned completely against gay rights activists. First same sex marriage was overturned in California, then in Maine, then the bill to legalize it in New York was squashed, and then it was squashed in New Jersey.

I am making a prediction based upon the recent trends that same sex marriage will fail in the United States. The Supreme Court will rule against same sex marriage in the next few years, as is evidenced by their concern for the "safety and security" of Prop 8 advocates by their recent decision to remove cameras from the federal Prop 8 trail. The Supreme Court majority obviously views same sex marriage advocates as a dangerous radical group. If you need further confirmation, you will receive it when the Supreme Court rules that Washington R-71 petition signer's names should be kept secret.

Gay marriage supporters fear Supreme Court's ruling was an omen - latimes.com
U.S. Supreme Court will take R-71 case

During the time that the issue works its way up to the Supreme Court, repeals of same sex marriage will be successfully completed in New Hampshire by 2014...

3 weeks after gay marriage law, NH takes up repeal

Iowa will successfully repeal same sex marriage by 2014 as the GOP uses the issue to win seats in the state's legislature and put it up to a referendum vote.

Iowa activists want gay marriage on agenda - Chicago Tribune

But the biggest loss to the gay rights movement has already occurred with the election of Scott Brown to the Massachusetts Senate seat. With this election, hopes to push through a repeal of "Don't Ask, Don't Tell" and the Defense of Marriage Act have been effectively crushed.

Gay Rights Bills Threatened By Democratic Senate Loss | On Top Magazine :: Gay & Lesbian News, Entertainment, Commentary & Travel

It's also a strong sign of how the MA attitudes have shifted and as the state is the bedrock of the same sex marriage movement, a repeal of same sex marriage in that state would be the virtual end of the movement. Polls in that region suggest that a referendum vote on the issue would overturn same sex marriage in that state.

RealClearPolitics - Massachusetts Gay Marriage: Five Years Later

It would only be a matter of time before Vermont and Connecticut followed suit.

The National Organization for Marriage has lead an effective war against same sex marriage in the country by citing arguments that it would lead to education of same sex marriage in schools, it would degrade religious liberties, and that same sex marriage advocates pose a significant threat to those who support the traditional definition of marriage. This is only possible because the organization can prey the moral sensibilities of the nation, in which 49% consider homosexuality to be immoral...

Daily Number: Homosexuality and Morality - Pew Research Center

But the issue won't stop at same sex marriage. Despite the fact that 57% of the nation supports civil unions, the reality is a good share of those support civil unions only because of the threat of gay marriage. If there is no chance of gay marriage, then they have no reason to support civil unions for gay people. This can easily be seen in states which have passed Constitutional bans against same sex marriage...

Baptist Press - 15,000 rally in Hawaii against gay unions - News with a Christian Perspective

So gay rights advocates can plan post 2014 to be fighting just to keep civil unions and domestic partnerships.

Gay rights advocates became so comfortable in expecting to see same sex marriage become an inevitable reality in the United States that they did not foresee that just having the stronger arguments and evidence was not enough. Propaganda machines like NOM have demonized the movement and preyed on old fears of a gay agenda to recruit children and undermine the traditions of the country. The gay rights movement then allowed fringe elements to take the media spotlight with acts of violence and vandalism.

YouTube- Anti proposition 8 protesters harass little old lady

YouTube- NOM - Gathering Storm

In effect, several decades of fighting for gay rights will effectively be erased over the next few years. Even if younger voters overwhelmingly support same sex marriage, it will be at least another generation before the gay rights movement will have a chance at same sex marriage again.

It may be time for gay rights advocates to throw in the towel on same sex marriage and push for the trenches on civil unions and domestic partnerships.

 

[Morgain]

don't give up the fight! Same sex mariages are legalized in my country and others. So it must be possible in the US as well in the future!

 

[Krumplenump]

I don't mind if they marry, but would never agree with them being legally allowed to bring up children as a 'family' for obvious reasons. Kids have enough to worry about at school besides having two dads or a couple of mothers.

 

[dark_angel]

don't give up the fight! Same sex mariages are legalized in my country and others. So it must be possible in the US as well in the future!

same here!

 

[Raccoon Love]

don't give up the fight! Same sex mariages are legalized in my country and others. So it must be possible in the US as well in the future!

+1

 

[Morgain]

I don't mind if they marry, but would never agree with them being legally allowed to bring up children as a 'family' for obvious reasons. Kids have enough to worry about at school besides having two dads or a couple of mothers.

same counts for split and rearanged families. What is worse, having two moms or having a rearanged family and having to move from one place to the other. A friend of mine has a mom and dad, a brother, a step dad, an ex-step dad, an ex step mom, an ex step brother, 2 half brothers from different dads and a half sister... now that is confusing!

 

[INFJesus]

I advise all couples, gay or straight to reject legal marriage all together.

love is NOT a contract.

 

[Raccoon Love]

same counts for split and rearanged families. What is worse, having two moms or having a rearanged family and having to move from one place to the other. A friend of mine has a mom and dad, a brother, a step dad, an ex-step dad, an ex step mom, an ex step brother, 2 half brothers from different dads and a half sister... now that is confusing!

Yup, agreed 100% besides studies have shown that countries which allow gay couples to adopt show that children raised under gay couples typically grow up to be as good or even better then children raised by heterosexual couples, it is not the parents sexual orientation but maturity and the gay person would be mature enough like any other parent to guide their child. We are constantly discriminated against or made fun of, we usually have to go through a lot and its this sort of strength and experience which makes a gay parent capable of raising children.

 

[Moxie]

Personally, I don't think it will fail - just take longer. The younger generations, like mine, are slowly getting older which means there will be more weight behind legalizing gay marriage as Generation X enters politics at an age that we are listened to.

 

[Blind Bandit]

As an idealist I hope not.

 

[Soulful]

I'm with what Moxie said. It is a matter of time. I hope when that time comes, the process will be more smooth, but it really is a matter of time.

Kids are made fun of for endless reasons. Having gay parents can be one of the more serious reasons why someone could be bullied, but it is by no means the only one. And I don't believe it's reason enough to deny gay couples the right to parenthood and familyhood. I see it in this way: If kids make fun of other kids for their family, an issue is clearly at hand. Avoiding that issue won't resolve it; it will simply manifest in other ways, at other times, and will need to be dealt with. In my opinion, the problem isn't with the gay parents, it never was. And until we can find stories and statistics to suggest that gay parenting is any more detrimental than heterosexual parenting (because we hear about those horrors all the time), I don't understand what the argument against it is.

This always seems like such a speculated topic. I'm interested to know more about the experiences of children of gay parents.

 

[TheLastMohican]

It may be time for gay rights advocates to throw in the towel on same sex marriage and push for the trenches on civil unions and domestic partnerships.

But as you said elsewhere in the post, wouldn't throwing in the towel now undermine a lot of the superficial support for civil unions as well? What the advocates need is more numbers and funding to push it on both fronts.

Btw, did you notice that that "Gathering Storm" ad has an average one-star rating with more than 21,000 votes? That's huge.

 

[Satya]

This always seems like such a speculated topic. I'm interested to know more about the experiences of children of gay parents.

From an evidence based approach...

http://www.glhv.org.au/files/children_of_GLBT_parents.pdf

More than two decades of research has failed
to reveal important differences in the adjustment or development
of children or adolescents reared by same-sex
couples compared to those reared by other-sex couples.
Results of the research suggest that qualities of family relationships
are more tightly linked with child outcomes
than is parental sexual orientation.

http://pediatrics.aappublications.org/cgi/content/full/118/1/349

There is ample evidence to show that children raised by same-gender parents fare as well as those raised by heterosexual parents. More than 25 years of research have documented that there is no relationship between parents' sexual orientation and any measure of a child's emotional, psychosocial, and behavioral adjustment. These data have demonstrated no risk to children as a result of growing up in a family with 1 or more gay parents. Conscientious and nurturing adults, whether they are men or women, heterosexual or homosexual, can be excellent parents. The rights, benefits, and protections of civil marriage can further strengthen these families.

Of course, I've given up arguing with people about it. It doesn't matter how strong the evidence is, if someone has a personal belief that the ideal home for a child is with two parents of different genders, then that is what they will believe. Whenever I hear someone making that argument, I just assume they are very ignorant and I accept them for their limitations. I have yet to hear any of them actually explain what it is that one gender can provide a child that the other cannot.

 

[Satya]

But as you said elsewhere in the post, wouldn't throwing in the towel now undermine a lot of the superficial support for civil unions as well? What the advocates need is more numbers and funding to push it on both fronts.

Btw, did you notice that that "Gathering Storm" ad has an average one-star rating with more than 21,000 votes? That's huge.

Civil marriage will be done away with completely long before same sex marriage is nationally recognized.

 

[Krumplenump]

same counts for split and rearanged families. What is worse, having two moms or having a rearanged family and having to move from one place to the other. A friend of mine has a mom and dad, a brother, a step dad, an ex-step dad, an ex step mom, an ex step brother, 2 half brothers from different dads and a half sister... now that is confusing!

Good point, if you compare having 2 mums or dads who are stable and secure to a 'normal' family who are unstable and divorced and then remarried etc etc, then I would agree with you.

I made my comment applying it to myself, but for a kids who grew up with it, it wouldn't be an issue I guess, apart from possible bullying at school.

Yup, agreed 100% besides studies have shown that countries which allow gay couples to adopt show that children raised under gay couples typically grow up to be as good or even better then children raised by heterosexual couples, it is not the parents sexual orientation but maturity and the gay person would be mature enough like any other parent to guide their child. We are constantly discriminated against or made fun of, we usually have to go through a lot and its this sort of strength and experience which makes a gay parent capable of raising children.

Good point about gay parents having to go through a lot and therefore have an 'extra' strength, but that is not a strength others cannot offer. For example my mum was bullied terribly at school and I think it's that that has given her an advantage in raising me.

children raised under gay couples typically grow up to be as good or even better then children raised by heterosexual couples

I would not go as far as advocating gay adoptions, but in light of the arguments I've seen I would accept them if the alternatives were worse.

 

[dneecey]

It may be time for gay rights advocates to throw in the towel on same sex marriage and push for the trenches on civil unions and domestic partnerships.

Wow, I am sorry you're feeling overwhelmed.. and I've never told you this but I am really glad that you're here. You continually keep me aware of the battle that you and other homosexual people are going through right at this moment. I hate the discrimination that you're constantly faced with...

But I must admit this statement that I quoted above doesn't sound at all like the Satya that I have come to admire at all, so I feel like you should know that you are strong, and your voice is heard. It may just be by a few right now, but a few, given time.. can often turn to many.

I know that all of the evidence is pointing to many major setbacks in your fight, and in my opinion it is an extreme injustice... but do not throw in the towel. I agree with Moxie that it's just going to take more time. And people need to see and talk about this in order for things to change. So please... please, keep bringing it up, no matter who does or doesn't like it. Everyone should be given equal rights... I mean, isn't that what America is supposed to stand for?

I want to give you cyber hug now.. but I'm going to go with one of these instead.. because I get the feeling you're not much for hugging......

 

[Celsius100]

Is it sad that I'm starting to think a division into two countries would be the most effective means for peace? Just draw a big line down the middle and let people who hate others living their lives differently take one half that we never need to look at again, and the rest of us who are accepting of it are perfectly fine with it enjoy ours?

Regardless, the fact that this is failing just pushes the idea of 'separation of church and state' that much further from any sign of ever having existed. This is exactly why I hate politics. It's like playing a game of tag where the rules change to only benefit the snobby brat kid.

/rant before I get too pissy.

Actually, as a side note: I wouldn't even care about the lack of religion and politics being separate if it wasn't for the fact that the ones in power are either too gung-ho about the 'homosexuality is a sin and is poisoning humanity" crap, or totally afraid of the idea of difference in general. It's a shame, because I know not all Christians are anti-gay rights.

The whole situation is stupid to even be in debate.

 

[Satya]

Wow, I am sorry you're feeling overwhelmed.. and I've never told you this but I am really glad that you're here. You continually keep me aware of the battle that you and other homosexual people are going through right at this moment. I hate the discrimination that you're constantly faced with...

But I must admit this statement that I quoted above doesn't sound at all like the Satya that I have come to admire at all, so I feel like you should know that you are strong, and your voice is heard. It may just be by a few right now, but a few, given time.. can often turn to many.

I know that all of the evidence is pointing to many major setbacks in your fight, and in my opinion it is an extreme injustice... but do not throw in the towel. I agree with Moxie that it's just going to take more time. And people need to see and talk about this in order for things to change. So please... please, keep bringing it up, no matter who does or doesn't like it. Everyone should be given equal rights... I mean, isn't that what America is supposed to stand for?

I want to give you cyber hug now.. but I'm going to go with one of these instead.. because I get the feeling you're not much for hugging......

It gets very disheartening after awhile after watching defeat after defeat, with no real rational to back it up. Then to see Americans exporting the same arguments they have used to defeat same sex marriage to Africa, which have been used to promote legislation there...like the gay death bill in Uganda that puts homosexuals to death for repeatedly offending and being HIV positive with a partner and even the 3 year sentences for people who don't report homosexuals to the government.

It gets harder and harder to have passion about something when it has a 31-0 track record and the greatest threat to it is, "let the people vote". Americans generally see gay people and their relationships as inferior, and it's something I'm just going to have to come to accept. No amount of arguing from evidence or reason is going to change that outcome. The top news story will always be the Christian traditional marriage supporter who received an unsubstantiated death threat on their phone and had their yard sign vandalized, not the gay man who was beaten to death in an alley.

 

[christmas]

Is it sad that I'm starting to think a division into two countries would be the most effective means for peace? Just draw a big line down the middle and let people who hate others living their lives differently take one half that we never need to look at again, and the rest of us who are accepting of it are perfectly fine with it enjoy ours?

Heh, that sounds great in theory, but I think the last time we did something like that it was called The Civil War, and it kinda sucked.

I believe in the good old U.S.A. even though she is really flawed. Eventually, we'll do the right thing. It is just going to take time, and even then it won't be perfect.

 

[Satya]

I believe in the good old U.S.A. even though she is really flawed. Eventually, we'll do the right thing. It is just going to take time, and even then it won't be perfect.

I just wanted to live long enough to see same sex marriage recognized nationwide in this country.