The Euro - About to Implode?

InvisibleJim

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In Greece, Today

People go to the polls and may vote in a government which has promised to scrap the terms of the 140% GDP loan given by the rest of Europe to Greece a year ago. For a sense of comparison, the Marshall Plan where the US lent to rebuild Europe after World War 2, lent 104% of GDP to the destroyed European economies.

In Spain, Last Week

The Prime Minister upsets Uganda in signing a bailout this week for $125 billion commented to civil servants is noted as advising the negotiating position: 'Stand your ground, we're the number four power in Europe. Spain is not Uganda.' Indeed, Uganda has a healthy growing GDP and rapidly improving living standards, something the PM of Spain likely is envious of.

In Italy, On Thursday

10 Year Bonds exploded to 6%. No-one realised that Italy is having to lend $30 billion to Spain, however it has to lend at a 3% higher rate than what they pass on to Spain... woops. Italy now appears as the next country about to sink below the water.

In the UK, Friday


Some bizarre bail out package to try to refinance lending for mortages and businesses was put into place. No one can make head nor tail of it.

In Strasbourg/Brussels

European Commissioners bumble and fumble and Merkel and Hollande appear to be on a collision course in policy terms making any radical change unlikely.

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Where you think it will all end when the music stops?
 
We haven't been told anything official( the last i checked) but it looks certain Ireland will be leaving the euro. When you go into the banks these days it asks you if you want to deal with your money in euro or Irish punts. Stress.
 
I would be wary of anything the economist say because they have been strong advocates for the neoliberalism that has been the cause of this financial crisis.....people need to remember that.....people need to let the economist go the way of the dodo along with neoliberalism by not buying into it (vote with their feet and with their money)

The economist is part of the media wing of the corporatocracy so they will be using scary language as part of their scare tactics to try and frighten the voting public into accepting austerity measures instead of refusing to pay the debt created by the bankers

When the crisis occured the global investors should have been made to take a hit

But this is not what has happened because the global investors fund the political parties and their political candidates; in effect they own them. So instead of the politicians doing what is best for the people which would be to write off the debts to the ability to pay they have said 'the global investors will not lose a penny.....instead we will pass the losses onto the public and make them pay.'

So they give the banks 'bank bailouts' of public taxpayer money and then impose 'austerity' onto us. Further to this they keep interest rates low which benefits the speculators but destroys the savings of the taxpaying public.

We as workers and taxpayers contribute to the real economy of production and consumption but the bankers do not contribute anything to the real economy.....all they do is extract interest from the real economy they do not produce anything.

The bankers are parasites that feed off the life blood (money) of the real economy. They have sucked so much money out of the real economy that the economy is receding ('recession') and it is growing weaker and weaker. They have convinced the host that they are part of the host but they are not...they are parasites

The global investors are not worried about this because they have a plan. What they are doing with all the public money that the corrupt politicians have given them is buying up all the public assets such as roads, hospitals, schools, prisons, bridges, tunnels, power, sewerage, forests, beaches, buildings, land, water etc which the corrupt politicians are selling to them cheaply in government 'firesales' as part of a big drive towards 'privatisation'

When you are walking somewhere and you see a sign saying 'private no access' that tells you what privatisation means. What it means is that a few extremely wealthy people get to control access to all the things i have listed above and more besides. They can dictate the prices we pay to use these goods and services.

An example of what the corporate elite will try and do can be seen with what Bechtel did in Bolivia where it bought the water rights from corrupt politicians and then raised the charges for the water. People couldn't afford water so they began to collect rainwater until the corporations got the corrupt politicians to make collecting rainwater illegal. This madness came to an end when the people rose up and protested together against this giant scam and they won back access to the water that is their birth right as beings on this earth

The plan is for the global investors to end up controlling everything and for the rest of us to end up as their fuedal vassels who must work as their indentured consumer slaves.

This plan is not a forgone conclusion however. Although this guy thinks it is: [video=youtube;Rc7i0wCFf8g]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rc7i0wCFf8g[/video]

The Greeks have an opportunity to reject the austerity measures by voting for a party who is offering to do that. This would be a big setback for the bankers. Weighed against that possibility however is the efforts of the corporate media that will try to scare people with stories of financial catastrophe if they do not accept the austerity measures (ie refuse to pay the debt of the bankers).

Historically what has always happened in times of crisis is that people revert back to a currency backed by precious metals such as gold and silver.

The bankers got rid of the gold standard and they got rid of various legislation that was preventing them from carrying out the kind of crazy things they have been doing since deregualtion and they put a fiat currency in its place. This fiat currency is a giant ponzi scheme that is beginning to unravel....when it does we will go back to a gold standard.

Countries like greece, ireland, spain, portugal, italy could revert to a gold standard and start a domino effect of other countries following them to avoid paying the bankers debts to the global creditors. But this would require the public to take power back off the corrupt politicians who are working for the bankers....which is what the occupy movement is trying to do: delegitimise the politicians (who are in the back pocket of the bankers)

This will all take time though so the music is not going to stop for a while because the central banks can just keep printing money to keep the ponzi scheme going a while

How radical is the greek opposition really and are they likely to get into power?

I think that there are a lot of petty bourgeousie who will likely vote conservatively because they are too terrified of losing their own little empires of dust and cant see the bigger picture

Can the pressure cooker take more pressure before it blows big time? Probably...how much pressure...i don't know
 
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I'll give anyone £10 who can keep Muir on topic.
 
I'll give anyone £10 who can keep Muir on topic.

You can't think narrowly on this stuff or you miss the big picture!

I think that in the global investors grand scheme the euro is a bridge currency that is just an intermediate stage towards a global currency so its destiny is to dissapear one way or another anyway

Will it 'implode'? The ponzi scheme has to end at some point...the question is when? The central bankers can keep the game going a while longer but will the people stand for it?

Thesis, antithesis, synthesis......we have a crisis, this makes the people despair...the power elite offer their solution: a new currency?

I think thats 'on topic' so it looks like the drinks are on you Jim
 
Where you think it will all end when the music stops?

I think Europe needs to stick together. The reason for the bailouts is that nobody would benefit from the collapse of a country. It's so hard to predict the end result, since things change on a day to day basis, but I sincerely hope that this won't mean the end of the European Union as an entity.
 
I happen to have a great deal of involvement with this issue, as my work requires me to. If your really serious about wanting to know what this is all about, and the likely outcome, why it's worse than you think, but not nearly as bad as most think, and why this isn't even new...and how it should be handled to best protect the interests of the average european citizen... read this link:

http://www.scribd.com/fullscreen/81942527?access_key=key-haj7c3qltzkyklsibr9

it's academic but accessable, though it's long. I believe this report nails it.
 
I happen to have a great deal of involvement with this issue, as my work requires me to. If your really serious about wanting to know what this is all about, and the likely outcome, why it's worse than you think, but not nearly as bad as most think, and why this isn't even new...and how it should be handled to best protect the interests of the average european citizen... read this link:

http://www.scribd.com/fullscreen/81942527?access_key=key-haj7c3qltzkyklsibr9

it's academic but accessable, though it's long. I believe this report nails it.

My viewpoint has been the same for a while.

Infact, I don't believe there is any other choice.
 
In Spain, Last Week

The Prime Minister upsets Uganda in signing a bailout this week for $125 billion commented to civil servants is noted as advising the negotiating position: 'Stand your ground, we're the number four power in Europe. Spain is not Uganda.' Indeed, Uganda has a healthy growing GDP and rapidly improving living standards, something the PM of Spain likely is envious of.

The reason Uganda can have a growing GDP and improving living standards is because they're starting from a pretty terrible baseline. I seriously doubt anyone in Spain is seriously envious of Uganda. Spain is still a rich European country, and Uganda is still a poor African country. That fact makes the comparison of those two variables absurd even if Spain has a debt crisis.
 
The reason Uganda can have a growing GDP and improving living standards is because they're starting from a pretty terrible baseline. I seriously doubt anyone in Spain is seriously envious of Uganda. Spain is still a rich European country, and Uganda is still a poor African country. That fact makes the comparison of those two variables absurd even if Spain has a debt crisis.

Still a problem for Spain. Nothing causes elected governments trouble like 40% 20-30 year old unemployment.
 
due to the fact that the euro currency is essentially, a "gold standard" in regards to central banks of soverigen nations not having the ability to control the money supply - IE: not being able to devalue their currency, it maintains an economic imbalance that in effect "punishes" the less fiscially robust nations and benefits the more fiscially robust nations. And not in the obvious sense, but in a magnified, disproportional sense.

Case in point - the whole point of having a free floating market determined valuation of a currency is to maintain "balance" (in theory anyway). Normally when a nation is financially unbalanced, such as greece is where it has too high a debt to GDP ratio, and is experiencing a full blown financial depression... their currency would devalue and various investors pull money out of there markets, don't buy their bonds, etc.

This would cause a normal market determined devaluation of their currency. And, now with a currency of lower value, the nation in question (greece in my little example here) now suddenly becomes much more competitive in the global marketplace. They can become net exporters, due to their currency being quite cheap when compared to other nations currencies, and they also have the additional benefit of being able to pay off their debts with "cheaper money"...

in effect, if greece had it's own currency, the market would have devalued it, and as I type this, greek exports would be more competitive, this would fuel a "mini boom" that would quickly enable the government to tax this economic activity, and therefore pay off their debts at a cheaper price (due to devalued currency) and via self generated economic activity... ie: economic GROWTH.

but, greece (and others) cannot print their own currency, nor can they devalue their own currency. In fact, much of the strength of the euro can be accredited to the fiscal robustness and dominance that is germany.

Therefore, as long as greece (and others) are tied to the euro... they will be fighting an uphill battle because they will simply not be able to compete with the german financial prowess... and it sucks, because that's what is why greece can't win. they would need to be on track suddenly to surpass germany in their industrial and financial output, but they will have the overhanging debts that will greatly limit their ability to focus on "growth" (and lots of other reasons too...)

it's a catch 22 of sorts.

Howeever, if greece and others left the euro currency, they would in fact be the great benfactors of this. Germany, the UK, and other major soverigen debt holders would be the losers.

There have been over 60+ currency union breakups in the last 100 years, and even some of the most recent and "catastrophic" like Argentina circa 1999 - 2002, where they saw tremendous fiscal and economic problems. here is a quote from wikipedia:

In a 2001 interview, journalist Peter Katel identified three very serious crises that converged at "the worst possible time" in his explanation for why the Argentinian economy unraveled in the manner that it did, at the time that it did:

The Argentine peso was bound to the US dollar at the start of the 1990s by the Economy Minister at the time, Domingo Cavallo.
The large amounts of borrowing by former Argentine president, Carlos Menem.
An increase in debt due to the considerable shrinkage in the size of tax revenue that the government was receiving.[3]

By late December, 2001, riots had reached the capital, Buenos Aires.

Sound familiar? Well, it took less than 3 quarters for the "financial fallout" to fade away, and within less than 18 months, their GDP was on track to exceed what it had been before the crisis ever started. In the process, their economy boomed,
unemployement dropped like a rock, almost on a week-by-week basis... and it was basically all over within 24 months (and, it provided massive investment opportunities for those who were willing to bet on an Argentine recovery shortly after their currency imploded)

Taking argentina as a case study example, they only way out is to purge the books. and the only way to do that is to have a currency that the marketplace can devalue, in order to get past the mess and build economic growth as a function of opportunity being created, rather than growth as a function of "stimulus and bail outs" which does not create opportunity, and in this case due to the size of the debts, only delays the inevitable.

the euro currency is a failed experiment. There have been nobel prize winning studies on what factors make for a good currency union... in short, the euro zone fails on every single count.

and the longer it drags on, the longer the euro zone as a whole will suffer econimically, politically, and socially.

P.S. THIS IS A SUPER OVER SIMPLIFIED WRITE UP. but, i believe it will provide the lay-person who reads this thread some understanding of whats going on here...
 
My understanding of the argentinian situation is that they were struggling until they rejected the measures for 'structural adjustment' imposed on them by the IMF

Once they shook off the US dominated IMF they began to make a recovery

Maybe its time for other countries to step outwith the control of the US and to start trading in other currencies than the dollar...ie challenge dollar hegemony?
 
You can't think narrowly on this stuff or you miss the big picture!

I think that in the global investors grand scheme the euro is a bridge currency that is just an intermediate stage towards a global currency so its destiny is to dissapear one way or another anyway

there is no "plans" for a global currency as you call it, unless of course the world adopts a direct and proportional "gold standard" or "silver standard"... in which case, well, ya... that would be just one currency.

if you are inferring that there is some forces working to implement a single global fiat currency, i will say that is possibly the most preposterous thing i've heard since a close family friend of mine told me that because i have "saturn rising" in my star chart is the reason why I am somewhat accomplished in my choosen career.

care to clarify... ???
 
My understanding of the argentinian situation is that they were struggling until they rejected the measures for 'structural adjustment' imposed on them by the IMF

Once they shook off the US dominated IMF they began to make a recovery

Maybe its time for other countries to step outwith the control of the US and to start trading in other currencies than the dollar...ie challenge dollar hegemony?

yes, you are right about argentina... but I wonder if your missing the forest for the trees.

the THEME here is: until a nation that is in a relatively weak financial situation is able to "cleanse" it's debts via establishing a currency that it can control the money supply and monetary policy as it sees fit... then it will face economic hardships.

This has nothing to do with a US controlled anything here. if anything, it's germany controlled things...

but the truth is, it's like ending a bad relationship. it sucks, and it's hard, and awkward, and everyone hurts a bit so no one wants to actually do it. but, eventually, it's done, and things actually get better pretty quick after that.

EDIT: ok, it seems you do get the idea after all.. however, I think you have a somewhat US-Capitalistic-Boogieman-centric view of it that I don't personally agree with. In another time in other less "globally interconnected" ways... maybe, sure.

but, this, here, and now.... well, lets just say this creek is really really big, and really really foul... and it seems the whole developed world showed up for a party, and NO ONE brought any paddles.
 
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I think that there are investors without borders who wish to centralise their power as much as possible

I don't think they care what currency we use and to be honest i think that money is becoming an increasingly abstract thing

I think that 'money' will lose its physical form and transactions will be done with various technologies such as swiping your mobile phone or wristbands with microchips in them moving towards nano technology that is implanted under the skin

I think that money only exists as a form of control. As the means of control evolve so the function of money must change as well

This might sound 'preposterous' and it certainly is not a forgone conclusion, but time will be the judge
 
Despite my better judgement, i'm gonna bite here... as far as "investors without borders"... I don't even know what that actually means... since I have for several decades now believed that an investment should be considered in it's entirety, including tax rammifications, licensing fees, red tape, legislative requirements.... etc.

in fact, investing in a variety of investment vehicles, be them physical, intangible, in the US, the UK, or Botswana always has made sense to me. it's in effect diversification from soverigen or regional fiscal ineptitude (think eurozone for one example)

and i won't deny that people with power and influence and financial means tend to associate and deal with others of a similar stature. it kinda makes sense, in a homer simpson sorta way... like, it's just obvious.

people with money tend to operate their lives a certain way...and they tend to look for new money making opportunities. and, wouldn't you know it...but usually some for the best sources for them to find this is other people with money and means.

but, as far as a "conspiracy" to centralize power... I got news for you. there's no conspiracy. it's out in the open. the eurozone... NAFTA, trade sanctions, embargos, tarrifs, currency unions, etc....

problem is... people really really suck at actually making other people do exactly as they want.

and it's PARTICULARLY difficult to make "powerful/influential" people do exactly what you want.

I don't know if you've spoken to some of the more politically and economically powerful folks in the world lately.... but... well, for those that are continuing to seek to gain "more".... they actually don't have much interest in relenquishing their control to anyone... even like minded people.

at least, I think this is what you are inferrring when you say "centralise their power as much as possible"

just ask Merkel how she's been able to get the rest of the euro zone (you know, the single most powerful and influencial financial/monetary group the world has seen in the last 200 years) to go along with a single plan, or a single ideal...etc.

and it's not as if they are playing for peanuts. they are actually playing for argueably the most powerful financial position in the world (for now)

Now, you did mention "without borders"....and although I fail to be able to generate such a colorful and obvious example of how those "work" (or don't for that matter)...

but generally people of such sophistication do not have any interest in giving up what they have to follow a "team" or group ideal or whatever. many have what they do because they did things differently... their way...and not "the other guys way"

It really all boils down to human nature: power seeking individtuals will naturally work more often with other power seeking individuals.

however, power seeking individuals each want to exert THEIR influence on the others... so you have a sort of endless "power struggle tug of war" at the top... and I would say it looks, in fact, NOTHING like cooperation, and much more like competition.

So, i don't worry about such. until humans actually quit fighting over politics, power, and control....i'm gonna bet that they also fail to cooperate on that level, to that extent as you infer.

please feel free to correct any points I make that in fact do not properly address your points... tks
 
yes, you are right about argentina... but I wonder if your missing the forest for the trees.

the THEME here is: until a nation that is in a relatively weak financial situation is able to "cleanse" it's debts via establishing a currency that it can control the money supply and monetary policy as it sees fit... then it will face economic hardships.

This has nothing to do with a US controlled anything here. if anything, it's germany controlled things...

but the truth is, it's like ending a bad relationship. it sucks, and it's hard, and awkward, and everyone hurts a bit so no one wants to actually do it. but, eventually, it's done, and things actually get better pretty quick after that.

EDIT: ok, it seems you do get the idea after all.. however, I think you have a somewhat US-Capitalistic-Boogieman-centric view of it that I don't personally agree with. In another time in other less "globally interconnected" ways... maybe, sure.

but, this, here, and now.... well, lets just say this creek is really really big, and really really foul... and it seems the whole developed world showed up for a party, and NO ONE brought any paddles.

I've had to explain this before and ill explain again to avoid offending any yanks who might think i am criticising the american people themselves...when i say 'US' i'm actually using shorthand for a certain element of the global community who are exercising influence over various governments. The US might have various factions within it but they must all drink from the well of the central bank....and who controls the central bank?

The US is providing this element with a powerful tool to meet its ends. The US has a powerful military that can be used as a stick to beat other countries with, it has a population who have been well conditioned and are powerfully under the spell of consumerism and are generally pretty politically docile and it has many resources at its disposal

The US emerged as the pre-eminent power after the second world war and the global investors had to put their energies into using that to meet their ends as Britains power had waned. The US has benefitted from having the dollar as the global reserve currency and the global investors have built up a global framework including the various central banks of the world lead by the Bank for international settlements and including: the world bank, the UN and the IMF that have all been used as instruments to enforce a neoliberal doctrine on as many countries as possible.

Thats a process that is ongoing with many non nuclear muslim countries currently in the firing line

Previously other areas of the globe had been the focus of attention for example south east asia and south and central america leaving a legacy of distrust and hatred for the US. For example see online about CIA lead Operation Condor which saw the murder of 60,000 people and the detention and torture of many more

Concerning germany having the power....who runs germany's central bank? Also where are germany's gold reserves? (New York) and how many nukes does Germany have?
 
no need to apologize, I fully understood what your reference was regarding the U.S. I'm not as pedestrian as my posts may depict me to be...

i don't want to take this thread down a tangent that isn't quite on topic, nor is it something that I feel you or I will actually be able to obtain any insight or resolution on.

while I won't disagree with you that the U.S. is a powerful influence on the world... it is well on it's way to experiencing a similar "fade away" as the british empire has seen this last 100 years.

it is no longer the singular world financial power, it in fact shares this with other G8 nations. Don't believe me? just ask china if it feels that the U.S. is the singular global economic entity that the world revolves around...

And militarily it isn't what it once was. Neither is war for that matter...but that's another topic for a never time.

and as they say, it's the victors who write the history books. well, the victors also get to write the most influential political, economic, and social policies. But this isn't new or unique to the U.S. this reality is as old as the hills. And it's unfortunate that other cultures and people are at a disadvantage due to this "power vaccum"... but, again, this is an element of a civilized world populated with humans who operate under a generalized guideline of thought and emotion known as "human nature".

on a personal level... I don't see it as good OR bad. I don't see it as relevant. Frankly, singapore is has, on the whole, a much more capitalistic supportive legal structure than the united states...and is in fact becoming a "capitalistic haven" for businesses and business people.

But, getting back to the EURO crisis.... I don't see where you made a point that the united states is in fact "controlling" the destiny of the euro here. Actually, that's one of the things I absolutly LOVE about a capitalistic society and the worlds capital markets....

when push comes to shove, no individual or entity or nation is too big, too powerful, or too influential to prevent the market, and to an even greater extent, the world economy, from doing what it is going to do.

ultimately the marketplace is the master...and ulitimately, no single individual or group controls the marketplace.
 
no need to apologize, I fully understood what your reference was regarding the U.S. I'm not as pedestrian as my posts may depict me to be...

i don't want to take this thread down a tangent that isn't quite on topic, nor is it something that I feel you or I will actually be able to obtain any insight or resolution on.

while I won't disagree with you that the U.S. is a powerful influence on the world... it is well on it's way to experiencing a similar "fade away" as the british empire has seen this last 100 years.

it is no longer the singular world financial power, it in fact shares this with other G8 nations. Don't believe me? just ask china if it feels that the U.S. is the singular global economic entity that the world revolves around...

And militarily it isn't what it once was. Neither is war for that matter...but that's another topic for a never time.

and as they say, it's the victors who write the history books. well, the victors also get to write the most influential political, economic, and social policies. But this isn't new or unique to the U.S. this reality is as old as the hills. And it's unfortunate that other cultures and people are at a disadvantage due to this "power vaccum"... but, again, this is an element of a civilized world populated with humans who operate under a generalized guideline of thought and emotion known as "human nature".

on a personal level... I don't see it as good OR bad. I don't see it as relevant. Frankly, singapore is has, on the whole, a much more capitalistic supportive legal structure than the united states...and is in fact becoming a "capitalistic haven" for businesses and business people.

But, getting back to the EURO crisis.... I don't see where you made a point that the united states is in fact "controlling" the destiny of the euro here. Actually, that's one of the things I absolutly LOVE about a capitalistic society and the worlds capital markets....

when push comes to shove, no individual or entity or nation is too big, too powerful, or too influential to prevent the market, and to an even greater extent, the world economy, from doing what it is going to do.

ultimately the marketplace is the master...and ulitimately, no single individual or group controls the marketplace.

I wasn't apologising....you asked me for clarification so i was clarifying

Many people are saying we are seeing the end of the US empire....i believe we are seeing a 'fading out' as you put it

Henry Ford was once showing someone around his mass production lines and he boasted that he was able to cut the work force due to mechanisation. The other person commented 'that's all very well henry, but if you lay off workers then who's going to buy your cars?'

Work has been outsourced from the west for a while now and we have made a transition from manufacturing to a 'service' economy. The problem highlighted to ford above has been overcome by cheap credit....debt has made the consumer bubble possible

We have gone from a currency pegged to something tangible (gold) to something abstract (fiat currency). We have a workforce who no longer make things with their hands but instead sit in front of computers wired on coffee moving numbers around the screens

Specialisation has created one trick ponies who have no overview of the bigger picture. People have been conditioned to value intangibles but they are all in for a rude awakening because intangibles don't keep the weather off and they don't fill the belly

Society is going to get a shock as the economic system collapses and there will be a drastic readjustment of what is valued and what is not

I beleive that such a collapse is a moment of opportunity. I think it is an opportunity for the public to reassess how their societies are run and what they value. It is my hope that they will begin to see the value of greater democracy and of increased say in the running of their communities (an end to the lack of transparency and accountability that has allowed certain people to exploit the system to their personal advantage)

However the global investors who have managed to get more wealthy with each war and crisis will also see the collapse as an opportunity to forge something new from the chaos. Here's what global investor David Rockeffeller once said: "We are on the verge of a global transformation. All we need is the right major crisis...and the nations will accept the New World Order.."

You have said that no entity is big enough to control things but i am talking about a closely knit group of people tied together by certain bonds but most importantly perhaps by their love of power who see their aims as mutually beneficial. They are not constrained by national borders or by the laws of governments as they control the flows of wealth

They control the central banks and they control the money supply

There may well be elements in China who might find common cause with such people

The fading of military power in individual countries such as britain or the US can be offset by the western power elite through the formation of power blocks such as NATO which is a little like the blocks Orwell wrote about in his cautionary novel 1984

Just out of interest have a look at the NATO symbol which is a star and focus only on the blue part of the star itself....what do you see?

natoflag.gif
 
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