Corona / Wuhan virus

What the fuck is this conversation? :tearsofjoy:


RE, I think you often speak off the cuff but present your opinions with an authority that doesn't become them, and so you often get caught speaking out of school. I don't mind this since I've learned how you present your ideas, but it might be good form going forwards to adopt some caveats and disclaimers to explain how you tend to communicate: some phrases like, 'to the best of my knowledge, I think...', &c.
 
ReasonEnduring said:
Unfortunately I don't have the time to go to every hospital to count every body.

Its why the scientific method and scientific honesty is so important. We must be able to trust our data in the scientific community, including the medical community, is accurate, otherwise we can do no science at all.

I trust my collegues in their respective fields to do their job properly and honestly. If they don't, they should be publically named and shamed.

The problem is when governments start interfering with the scientific process because it doesn't support their ideology, see the CCP.

Other countries do it too, but its harder to do in a Democracy with Free Press because newspapers and investagative journalism can find out and report the government's suppression. Or that is the theory at any rate.

In this crisis, I trust the medical community.
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So my point that you don't know for sure, asserts that no one knows for sure of any data presented, and especially when presented by entities with an agenda and the power to fulfill it. And the most human conclusion is that we're really going off of is data we want to believe in.
 
ruji said:
So my point that you don't know for sure, asserts that no one knows for sure of any data presented, and especially when presented by entities with an agenda and the power to fulfill it. And the most human conclusion is that we're really going off of is data we want to believe in.
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I can't prove their is oxygen is in the air or that the Earth orbits the Sun but I take it for granted. I can't prove Dinosaurs existed but I take it for granted. I've never tried to cut a diamond but I trust its harder than steel. I don't know for certain when I click send anyone is going to read this message but I trust it will, because I trust science and the scientists who pioneered the life I live.

If you don't trust science you can't have nice things like electricity, television, or the internet.

Again, I trust the scientific community because if you don't trust science, you don't get science.
 
philostam said:
Completely agree with @ReasonEnduring.

Not everything is a conspiracy. I personally even think numbers from China are close to the truth. Given that life there is returning to normal, I have no doubt that the disease is under control.
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Indeed.

Deleted member 16771 said:
What the fuck is this conversation? :tearsofjoy:


RE, I think you often speak off the cuff but present your opinions with an authority that doesn't become them, and so you often get caught speaking out of school. I don't mind this since I've learned how you present your ideas, but it might be good form going forwards to adopt some caveats and disclaimers to explain how you tend to communicate: some phrases like, 'to the best of my knowledge, I think...', &c.
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I do often and I will do better, but I don't feel I'm wrong in this instance.

Medical bodies aren't beholden to government inteference in Democracies at the levels they are in Authoritarian regimes.

They are reported by many Doctors and Nurses currently risking their lives to save us all from the Pandemic.

I trust them.

If other people don't want to trust them, fine.

But to suggest that no numbers matter at all is dangerous in a time where these numbers dictate the course of our fight against this Pandemic. We need to know where the areas of infection are most concentrated, where the deaths are most concetrated to get ventilators, masks, other equipment.

Knowing the data tells us when it can be safe to reopen areas, or begin planning to reopen.

Otherwise might as well say - "Fuck it, no numbers matter, open everything and lets see what happens!"
 
ReasonEnduring said:
I can't prove their is oxygen is in the air or that the Earth orbits the Sun but I take it for granted. I can't prove Dinosaurs existed but I take it for granted. I've never tried to cut a diamond but I trust its harder than steel. I don't know for certain when I click send anyone is going to read this message but I trust it will, because I trust science and the scientists who pioneered the life I live.

If you don't trust science you can't have nice things like electricity, television, or the internet.

Again, I trust the scientific community because if you don't trust science, you don't get science.
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Nice Te there, RE, I approve :sunglasses:
 
ReasonEnduring said:
I can't prove their is oxygen is in the air or that the Earth orbits the Sun but I take it for granted. I can't prove Dinosaurs existed but I take it for granted. I've never tried to cut a diamond but I trust its harder than steel. I don't know for certain when I click send anyone is going to read this message but I trust it will, because I trust science and the scientists who pioneered the life I live.

If you don't trust science you can't have nice things like electricity, television, or the internet.

Again, I trust the scientific community because if you don't trust science, you don't get science.
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There is a difference between knowing what you can witness, and knowing what others tell you. Rejecting common knowledge and what can be witnessed or proven has very little to do with what we're talking about.

The bottom line is whether you trust the source which you are getting data.
 
ReasonEnduring said:
Indeed.



I do often and I will do better, but I don't feel I'm wrong in this instance.

Medical bodies aren't beholden to government inteference in Democracies at the levels they are in Authoritarian regimes.

They are reported by many Doctors and Nurses currently risking their lives to save us all from the Pandemic.

I trust them.

If other people don't want to trust them, fine.

But to suggest that no numbers matter at all is dangerous in a time where these numbers dictate the course of our fight against this Pandemic. We need to know where the areas of infection are most concentrated, where the deaths are most concetrated to get ventilators, masks, other equipment.

Knowing the data tells us when it can be safe to reopen areas, or begin planning to reopen.

Otherwise might as well say - "Fuck it, no numbers matter, open everything and lets see what happens!"
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I don't think that's what ruji was saying exactly.

Even if we trust the sources, the quality of our data right now is highly provisional, and even the government statisticians are saying that this is not the form our post-hoc analyses will take. That will take the form of comparisons between all-cause mortality in order to track excess deaths.

There will be major adjustments to these figures when the dust settles.
 
Total cases: 1,163,372 new cases: +2,598 death : 67,535
so all y'all that are "tired"of social distance. . you gun totting morons that feel "your rights are being violated". . everyone that buys the trump "we all want to get busy again. . it will go away by magic..the warm weather will kill it. . " bullshit. .
here is today's truth, and the numbers are growing daily, we have not stemmed the tide. . people are dying, and more will die. . stay the fuck at home
 
Buyers remorse. I just can't buy into the fear-based mindsets. The pressure is too great, I have enough of a reality show right here at home. I'm not an activist nor am I a sheeple. What I do know is this virus has the potential to be deadly, so does the stress that is produced from listening to all the dramatized voices. I'm going to pay attention to what's right in front of me and let those others work it out.
 
ruji said:
There is a difference between knowing what you can witness, and knowing what others tell you. Rejecting common knowledge and what can be witnessed or proven has very little to do with what we're talking about.

The bottom line is whether you trust the source which you are getting data.
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I said repeatedly I DO trust the data because I trust the medical community. You don't have to and I'm not bothered by that, that's up to you.

You said I couldn't know that and I replied, REPEATEDLY I have faith in our hospitals to report the numbers correctly.

We have break downs by state, you could probably get it by hospital even. I trust those numbers.

I don't trust the media explicitly but these numbers are more than just in the media if you look around. Thus I trust them.

Deleted member 16771 said:
I don't think that's what ruji was saying exactly.

Even if we trust the sources, the quality of our data right now is highly provisional, and even the government statisticians are saying that this is not the form our post-hoc analyses will take. That will take the form of comparisons between all-cause mortality in order to track excess deaths.

There will be major adjustments to these figures when the dust settles.
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I don't disagree, but the arguments being made are that if you cannot witness it then the numbers have no value.

They might be adjusted. I never said they were perfect or exact, if you look back at my previous posts, but I said it WILL give a ball park to help us understand where the high areas of infection are. There is value in knowing these numbers.

Post event analysis will be better. Yes. But the numbers right now are the best we're going to get and they have some value.

I trust the source. I trust the medical community.

That's the bottom line. If other people don't believe it then fine, but trying to convince me there is no value in knowing the numbers now is just bad science.
 
ReasonEnduring said:
Which I do, I don't think any government other than the CCP has anything to gain from obscuring the amount of death occuring given the free press will find out eventually and report it. Its worse to lie about the death and be found out in a nation with free press than to just be honest and show the true numbers despite the damage.
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I agree with most points you did, but this part on bold is not really true.
Brazil is already faking CODVID data in the name of far right ideology to re-open the borders and make this looks like a flu. The studies are in portuguese, I havent seen any english version, but from these studies it is estimated that brazilian deaths are 2-5x times higher than official numbers, plus subnotification is 3-15x times higher than reported.
The president earlier had reduced a brazilian law related to the transparency of information, letting the government to hide stuff from this time.
Most recently, there has been approved some sort of temporarily law that allows, legally, bodies to be buried without having any document stating when the death occurred or why.

Not always you are lucky to be surrounded by a scientifically honesty community or seriously free press; I do agree with a lot of what you said, but critical thinking sometimes must be made. Crossing data and doing connections is a very good way to find out lies. For example, in Brazil the increase of some respiratory diseases have increased in, like, 2-5x times. Unknown deaths had also more than doubled into some states, actually, I think some of them were tripled. Thus, there are is sub-reporting of deaths. I also know that there are some few techniques that uses data do deduct or induct cheating in games.

But, you know, you are somewhat in a good position to trust your sources. I find this trust really beautiful.

EDIT: Loved your Obi-Wan avatar.
 
Vendrah said:
I agree with most points you did, but this part on bold is not really true.
Brazil is already faking CODVID data in the name of far right ideology to re-open the borders and make this looks like a flu. The studies are in portuguese, I havent seen any english version, but from these studies it is estimated that brazilian deaths are 2-5x times higher than official numbers, plus subnotification is 3-15x times higher than reported.
The president earlier had reduced a brazilian law related to the transparency of information, letting the government to hide stuff from this time.
Most recently, there has been approved some sort of temporarily law that allows, legally, bodies to be buried without having any document stating when the death occurred or why.

Not always you are lucky to be surrounded by a scientifically honesty community or seriously free press; I do agree with a lot of what you said, but critical thinking sometimes must be made. Crossing data and doing connections is a very good way to find out lies. For example, in Brazil the increase of some respiratory diseases have increased in, like, 2-5x times. Unknown deaths had also more than doubled into some states, actually, I think some of them were tripled. Thus, there are is sub-reporting of deaths. I also know that there are some few techniques that uses data do deduct or induct cheating in games.

But, you know, you are somewhat in a good position to trust your sources. I find this trust really beautiful.

EDIT: Loved your Obi-Wan avatar.
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No offense meant but Brazil isn't high on the freedom/democracy index after Bosanaro came along.

Even the US President was listening to experts for a while...

Its why we need to praise and reward nations who have scientific transparency.
 
There is a rush to normalcy happening in areas that have not been hard hit (yet) by the virus. People making threats if they're not treated the same as they always have been. What these folk don't realize is that the definition of normal may have been permanently changed.

City's proclamation requiring face masks in stores and restaurants is amended after threats of violence

An interesting, although redundant read (typical Atlantic, too many words, too little info)
The Real Reason to Wear a Mask

They did pull in this excellent piece of info though, which I appreciate:

LaSqB-o56YKaDbAel7BtkgZPiIqg9J_Y8qLMyxJci1SB2tvJ2lj1SSV9oI1u8dXzlF8Xey5Q3Sg34OJk_c0mFrC_mXRSK_zPsYhvjSCT1hbG59pr6j16nn5Xb18szuAsuheQ9rDx



Aerosol Filtration Efficiency of Common Fabrics Used in Respiratory Cloth Masks
(summed up, use two different density cottons - fleece and a high count cotton will work best.)

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(The above image is a little deceiving in that they curved the fabric to resemble a face mask, in which case the flow of particles is backward. It should represent exhaling not inhaling, but given most people can only be convinced to wear masks by saying this will protect them, I give them a pass.)
 
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