crisis averted
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Peppermint
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The "doomsayers" are being met with what they see as complacency for one simple reason. They aren't backing up their claims with anything - other than attempts at emotional appeal such as trying to provoke fear of this crisis in people.
If you see something - you can't expect others to fall into line with your views unless you provide evidence, whether by sound reasoning or empirical proof that give leverage to your views. Just saying OMG WE NEED TO DO SOMETHING FAST doesn't mean anything unless you explain
1) why is what you're seeing a problem and
2) what should be done
hence, your views are as of yet, unproven and we have no reason to trust you.
also, do clarify which geographical area you're speaking of.
If you see something - you can't expect others to fall into line with your views unless you provide evidence, whether by sound reasoning or empirical proof that give leverage to your views. Just saying OMG WE NEED TO DO SOMETHING FAST doesn't mean anything unless you explain
1) why is what you're seeing a problem and
2) what should be done
hence, your views are as of yet, unproven and we have no reason to trust you.
also, do clarify which geographical area you're speaking of.
manatee
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I don't know if this was actually directed at me, but I'm going to tell a little story.
The Fed thought it was a good idea to push the federal funds rate down to ~0% and keep it there for over a year (the bubbles leading up to 08 were caused by ca. 1 year at ~1%, to give you an idea of the magnitude of this) and expanded the money supply manifold. The reason this hasn't caused extreme price inflation is because most of it is sitting in the banks since they aren't very keen on lending. Balanced budgets seem like a fantasy, and as everyone is more than aware, the debt isn't really shrinking. While the dollar falls like a rock (it's substantially lower now than this graph shows, I apologize for outdatedness) gold is soaring. Price inflation is virtually non-existent if gold is used as measurement, but steadily rising when measured in any fiat currency of your choice. Unless Ben Bernie decides to raised the rates to stop the credit expansion (which would unexpectedly increase costs for several business projects, leading to bankruptcies and another big recession), prepare to bring out your wheelbarrows!
Regarding China, empty cities tend to be a pretty good indicator that something is wrong...
The theory behind is quite simple: 1. credit expansion (due to central banks & fractional reserve banking) -> 2. artificially low interest rates -> 3. false signals, encourages investment since borrowing is cheap & discourages saving (which means increased consumption) since saving doesn't give a high return, disproportionate amount of investment in interest sensitive sectors, longer production processes which aim to serve a non-existent future consumer demand -> 4. people acting as if there are more saved resources than really exists, bidding up prices -> 5. IF central bank inactive, businesses fail, crisis hits (in the first graph, interest rate increases as a response to run-away inflation are seen before all crises), IF further credit expansion, crash is postponed, investors continue further on unsustainable paths, go back to 1.
If the money supply keeps being artificially expanded, the crisis is temporarily averted, but it can't be done forever. Eventually, you start to get a bit too much paper.
The solution is to return to a commodity money and a 100% reserve requirement for banks, an easy way to which is hard to conceive of theoretically, and (more or less) politically impossible to even start an attempt at.
I still think it should be emphasized that even if states, stock markets, currencies, financial institutions etc. collapse, society won't. The relationships between us is what makes up society. But courage, charitableness and cooperation are imperative if we want to survive, a near-universal interdependence is a fact. Our real belongings will still exist, the only things disappearing are all the lies, but since everyone is currently acting as if these lies were true, many people will suffer once the truth is revealed. However, if we adapt to the new reality and care for one another, it won't be doomsday after all. There's no reason to be alarmed, just one to be prepared.
Peppermint
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Okay, thanks, that was reasonable. I definitely prefer a presentation like that over fear mongering. Just to clarify, you're speaking of the U.S. mostly or the 'world society'?
manatee
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Well, the US is probably going to get a bigger shock than most, if the dollar collapses. Especially considering how much of their economy is based on debt. But most other countries have their own paper currencies backed by a stock of other paper currencies, mostly dollars, so the monetary crisis will have global repercussions. Plus, given the interconnectedness of the world, a crash in one country has severe effects on other countries due to falling foreign exchange, especially if it's a big one like the US. Countries like China and Japan have pretty fundamentally sound economies though, that is to say, their real productive capacity is considerable, which is why Japan has managed to stay relatively prosperous despite decade-spanning catastrophic policies. So my answer is probably "both".
myself
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we're not fear mongering
this is really happening
we are currently feeling turbulence, it's bound to get even more rough as inflation continues
we are going to go through tough times, my goal is to be prepared
i'd like for you to be ready along with me
i want you working with me, not fighting me
this thread is for discussing possible solutions
i believe in our ability to choose something better than what we have been sold
if i was only fear mongering, i would speak of nothing but impending doom
i want to just get a handle on reality
i'm interested in seeing the big picture
if you are interested in the same thing, i'm happy to have you on the team
there are very few who are willing to honestly assess the situation
i'm not interested in fear. i want people to feel empowered to bring about change.
fear is used to keep the public unaware of the real things happening in this world.
fear is a tool of oppression, i only seek to liberate
try adjusting your perception of me and the things that i say
i am not your enemy
i'm trying to help you out as best i can
help me help you
help me understand what you are afraid of
there is a solution
we can discuss these things without disrespecting each other
My prediction is that Coyote is going to fall down. You're right though, I don't know this for certain.
I see. You equate the laws of physics with the "laws" of politics and economics. Just like the US budget can be balanced without tax increases? Smart.
Dream on. Love does not make effective economic policy. Rather, it's a matter of hard-minded rationality. But, lucky for you and the rest of the world, some of us actually have done, and do, good, compassionate works, rationally.
Peppermint
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Not interested. Stop making assumptions about my emotional states.
Nothing I've heard coming from you hasn't been even remotely reasonable. You're so engulfed in your opinions you can't even deal with the possibility of being wrong even when you've actually been proven wrong. I have no intent, much less obligation to honor your views when not only you don't return the courtesy, but you also act exceedingly intolerant of anyone who disagrees with you, which clearly conveys massive amounts of self righteousness and denial.
No, I don't need your help or your philosophies, because your judgement is something I hardly trust.
myself
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I don't know how to deal with you.
I can only take this opportunity to learn.
You would be served well to do the same.
I'm not perfect. I know this much.
Are you perfect? Have you figured it all out?
Where is your proof? Where are your reasonable statements?
From my perspective, you seem so eager to be right, but you don't care to be kind or helpful.
I'm interested in truth. I don't see the same interest expressed in you.
Best of luck to you on your path.
I hope you can someday realize a better way.
Come back to this thread when you can tame that ego.
Learn to respect yourself, you may then respect others as yourself.
We gotta learn the way of love. Life depends on it.
Sloe Djinn
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*quadruple facepalm*
myself
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What else am I supposed to do? Trash the kid?
He doesn't know any better. Would you like to see me rip him to shreds?
I'm not interested in the fighting. It wastes our time.
Neither of us will get anywhere if we are set against each other.
You can face palm all you want... truth is still truth.
Galileo
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I think Pete Seeger had it right when he said that right now we're right in the middle and our situation could go either way depending on the actions of the people over the next 10 or 15 years. What we decide to do, with regards to our environment and our relations with others on a world-wide scale will determine if the outcome will be good or bad.
Sloe Djinn
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You regularly make the mistake of equating debate to fighting, and that's why your threads by and large seem repetitious and no more convincing than the JP Morgan honcho who tells people that the US economy is in great shape and everything is just fine. Don't expect any of these threads to be productive when you regularly brush off anyone who disagrees with you because it's not worth your time to support your own views.
Siamese cat
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What is the truth? And I'm interested in specifics. Also, how do you know something is truthful?
And if you don't mind, I'd go back to the post that was not intended for me, but I have some questions regarding it.
You are not obliged to answer it, but I'm really curious, because you are very vague about things you say in this and some other threads, while obviously very passionate about them. So I'm curious to see what are you really talking about.
What is that turbulence you are talking about?
What kind of tough times? Also, what is your definition of tough times?
What do you see as possible solutions?
What have we been sold?
What is reality?
What would be the big picture in your opinion?
What are the real things happening in the world according to you?
If you are going to answer to those questions, please try to be specific.
Siamese cat
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Also, it's a she and not a kid.
manatee
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I'm pretty sure it actually is possible to do that. It's just to cut spending, if I understand this budget business correctly.
Besides, had we been on a system of sound money, inflation wouldn't erode the value of people's savings. Instead of pricing steadily going up, they would actually decrease, consistently (a constant amount of money and an increased amount of stuff leads to lower money prices for stuff! Amazing, right?), making programs like social security pretty much obsolete. Plus, expensive wars wouldn't be undertaken in the first place! Every big nation who has ever gone to a war has, at least temporarily, abandoned commodity money and resorted to a fiat currency. If they "tax" the people by diminishing their purchasing power in the future by means of printing money in the present, they can hide the domestic hardships of war in foreign countries to a substantial degree. Gee, it seems there wouldn't be much of a budget left to balance.
All of that is beside the point, though. Waging war against innocent peoples, conflating bystanders who have done no harm to anyone with radical terrorists, killing people without discrimination for serving a foreign army whether voluntarily or not, scuffing off murder to the side under the label of "collateral damage", pretending that global aggressiveness is justified without provocation, would be unthinkable had we been guided by sound morals. The allocation of planning processes to the few, instead of leaving it to the many, is based on a misanthropic and false idea about a supposed inadequacy of man to care for hirself and hir fellow men.
Rationality and reasoning, employed to its fullest capacity, would, indeed, probably lead us to correct conclusions about what to do. I don't see it as necessary, though. You may call me insane if you like, but it seems to me that sound reasoning leads you to the conclusion of non-aggressiveness, peace, mutual aid, charitability and compassion as the soundest of principles. When you try to go down the road of ratiocination to come up with "more perfect" ideals than this, you're missing the point, and you expose yourself to a grave risk of stumbling down the wrong path.
Or, rather, rationality, science etc. can't actually tell you what to do at all. That's one of the points of science: it's positive, descriptive, valueless. Not normative, prescriptive and value-driven. The knowledge that shooting an innocent man in a head will quite likely kill him doesn't tell you that you shouldn't. To reach that conclusion, you need to rely on sound values.
I commend you for this, and I sincerely hope that you shall continue doing this. Thank you for what you have done and are doing for the world.
You're right though, I should probably incorporate rationality or something of the sort as one of the pillars in my framework. The best of intentions may very well lead to disaster if one acts in ignorance. As long as one abstains from coercion, though, misguided aid seems unlikely.
myself
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would you like me to pry your eyes open for you, or will you open them up yourself?
take an honest look at the world you live in and you'll understand where I am coming from.
we can usually only discuss solutions to problems once we recognize the problems
when we stop living in denial, we will realize the power we have to change our situation for the better
reality is, we are connected
our relating to each other does matter
we've got to be kind
^ myself, it's not that I don't appreciate you trying to educate the forums, but to convince me that something is wrong, you must:
1. Tell me specifically what you think is wrong.
2. Give examples of situations that you think are not ideal.
3. Show proof for your assertions.
Vague answers such as "open your eyes" are not helping. I can't see it. I have no idea what you're talking about. Please be specific.
1. Tell me specifically what you think is wrong.
2. Give examples of situations that you think are not ideal.
3. Show proof for your assertions.
Vague answers such as "open your eyes" are not helping. I can't see it. I have no idea what you're talking about. Please be specific.
bickelz
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Wow, finally.
If anyone doesn't know this, the fed artificially lowers the value of the dollar against other currencies in times of recession in order to attract trade from foreign countries. Kinda cool.
But that's relative to other currencies. IRL, the dollar isn't doing so hot. And I think the Euro will overtake it as the currency of the world, eventually.
Unfortunately America, your time as the supreme power is waning. I think we need that kick in the balls though. We think we're so much better than everyone else but we don't realize that it's not entirely about competition. You want competition in the marketplace to encourage efficiency but it doesn't need to be about 1st place.