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I will tell you what would be bad for the US stock market (but good for other markets)

Reversing the playbook of the last 40 years. US on-shoring and re-industrializing, government running trade surpluses and budget surpluses. That would be great for the working class and rust belt but bad for Washington and Wall Street. Shift from capital to labor.

But will it happen?
 
philostam said:
At some point, maybe. But first, roaring 20s 2.0.

I've been hearing (from doomers) about CBDC for the last 4 years. It is not happening on any investable time horizon. I can assure you 99.99% that is not gonna happen in the next 4 years even if Democrats win. US is not North Korea.

Collapse of a dollar? Again, not happening but even if, currency collapse is good for a stock market. Look at Argentina, Venezuela...Stock market is up nominally.

You have to realize stock market is literally rigged to go up. The whole fiscal situation of the US is dependent on it. Even recession cannot stop it for long. COVID was the biggest negative GDP shock in decades, yet stock market was up 3 months after the initial collapse. Germany and most of Europe was in recession throughout 2023 yet stock markets were at all time high.

There will be technical corrections due to positioning, over-crowded trades and leverage washout. I don't expect much else. But hey, that's what makes the market - people disagreeing.

I think the bigger threat to a more material correction (like 2022) is the return of headline inflation maybe in late 2025 or 2026.
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The stock market isn't the real economy, just a casino for the rich that leeches off the real economy of wage earners.
 
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