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Biden is out.

Cheers,
Ian
 
So, uhm, there was a global market crash. People are saying it was a test rather than a true crash and that investors have known for a while. All that said, do you think a recession will happen?
 
mintoots said:
So, uhm, there was a global market crash. People are saying it was a test rather than a true crash and that investors have known for a while. All that said, do you think a recession will happen?
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They are lying, and will a recession happen? Of course. I don’t know when, and maybe not in relation to this AI event. But it will happen. No question.

I’m Gen-X. I’ve seen a few. They come like the seasons.

Cheers,
Ian
 
mintoots said:
So, uhm, there was a global market crash. People are saying it was a test rather than a true crash and that investors have known for a while. All that said, do you think a recession will happen?
Click to expand...

What crash? 😁

This was more of a technical correction due to too many people piling in the USD/JPY carry trade that unwound.

I don't expect recessions like we are used to them in the West. It's gonna be more of an emerging market recession - slow erosion of purchasing power over time. It's hard to have a traditional recession when US Treasury is running war time deficits.

It's already a recession for those that don't hold assets (stocks, housing, Bitcoin etc).
 
philostam said:
What crash? 😁

This was more of a technical correction due to too many people piling in the USD/JPY carry trade that unwound.

I don't expect recessions like we are used to them in the West. It's gonna be more of an emerging market recession - slow erosion of purchasing power over time. It's hard to have a traditional recession when US Treasury is running war time deficits.

It's already a recession for those that don't hold assets (stocks, housing, Bitcoin etc).
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Anyone not expecting a crash at some point down the line be it a real one or engineered is deluding themselves. If anything it will be engineered with the expectation of pushing CBDC after the USD is demonetized.
 
Roses In The Vineyard said:
Anyone not expecting a crash at some point down the line be it a real one or engineered is deluding themselves. If anything it will be engineered with the expectation of pushing CBDC after the USD is demonetized.
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At some point, maybe. But first, roaring 20s 2.0.

I've been hearing (from doomers) about CBDC for the last 4 years. It is not happening on any investable time horizon. I can assure you 99.99% that is not gonna happen in the next 4 years even if Democrats win. US is not North Korea.

Collapse of a dollar? Again, not happening but even if, currency collapse is good for a stock market. Look at Argentina, Venezuela...Stock market is up nominally.

You have to realize stock market is literally rigged to go up. The whole fiscal situation of the US is dependent on it. Even recession cannot stop it for long. COVID was the biggest negative GDP shock in decades, yet stock market was up 3 months after the initial collapse. Germany and most of Europe was in recession throughout 2023 yet stock markets were at all time high.

There will be technical corrections due to positioning, over-crowded trades and leverage washout. I don't expect much else. But hey, that's what makes the market - people disagreeing.

I think the bigger threat to a more material correction (like 2022) is the return of headline inflation maybe in late 2025 or 2026.
 
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