The combination of medium-term demographic collapse (in the producer-consumer-babies sense), severe short-term fertilizer supply shortages (with a decade-long impact) resulting from the war in Ukraine as well as tight export controls of nitrogen precursors (like potash), all-chips agricultural commoditization with attendant concerns about zoonotic outbreaks and herd decimation, as well as supplier withdrawal resulting from the retreat from globalization threaten to leave current industrializations moribund.
To say nothing of the economic policies which will grind the everyperson in an attempt to stem the coming tide.
The ways of the past will not be preserved. Today’s tide will become a deluge which will wash them away.
The people pyramid has become inverted. Inverted pyramids are not sustainable, on any level.
Buckle up, Buttercup. We’ve set ourselves up to go on the ride of rides.
The dominoes will fall, but in what order? What will be first?
I’m guessing as belts tighten, the end of supplier lines will result in widespread famine, and then war, across Africa. Swine flu and demographic collapse will rock China. Novel viral diseases will present. We are entering the end of the antibiotic age. Child labor will return, but it won’t be on the farm. Life expectancy will not change much, but median age will plummet from lack of access to medical care. Child-free will become normalized.
The future is insular, and one of profound inequality and inequity. Those cultures who mortgaged their future on the rape of the Global South will wither at the margins. The ones who burned so bright will be spent in a generation. No one to produce, no one to consume, and no future to give reason to hope.
So I’m still neutral, but given the vectors and momentums of things, as well as my penchant for imagined dystopian futures as fed by Ne, a real horrorshow of epic proportion seems not just possible, but likely.
An end of times? No. Only the end of what we knew and took for granted.
Don’t bother bringing your A-game.
Because...
Love One Another,
Ian