Trump will win again

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aeon said:
This right here shows me you are either ignorant, or posting in bad faith.

There is no federal law regarding migration to the United States, so there are no illegal migrants.

You now have a choice. Either to learn the law, or stop misrepresenting the issue.

With All Due,
Ian
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I saw the other response but I also want further clarification, are you saying this because the use of the word 'migrant' was in that sentence?

I get confused, because people are now using the term 'migrant' interchangeable with, say, 'citizen' or 'immigrant'. I had thought this was like what George Carlin calls soft language; so 'illegals' now is 'undocumented people'. But what I gather is you're trying to address migrant when maybe it was undocumented immigrants that was being discussed?
 
Super ecstatic about this press conference I am watching with Japan and United States; very interested in the strategy that is being laid out in terms of investment of Japan in U.S. Steel (home grown jobs, relocate the supply chain here) but that's also balancing international connections because that was my main fear of becoming too isolationist/cut off from the global economy. As well as leveraging that relationship with Japan to create a cushion against China. I wish I knew more about foreign politics, to be honest. I know Japan-China have historical issues but no idea what their current deal is now other than I guess Japan allied with USA so thats sort of a big rift.

I actually *love* the daily press conferences and information...it feels productive. I may not agree with everything that happens but the transparency is super cool.

Obviously, the recent developments with Israel-Gaza conflict is a hot topic. I have seen so many takes on both sides, the anger on the left, the sort of cocky way the right is laughing about it. Such an emotional situation. Logistically I want to know how the USA is involved in this, are we sending troops? Or is it just our backing and implication, both financial and potential to move in, that Israel was asking for in order to proceed?

Almost makes me think trying to strengthen stuff with Japan has to do with Taiwan. I mean, with Gaza as it is now, not sure what argument can be made about China not taking hold of Taiwan. I would be more concerned about that if it didn't appear this administration has put heavy emphasis on space development. If we were able to actually mine minerals out there, well, guess Taiwan becomes a little irrelevant, doesn't it? Obviously we aren't there yet, but I am hopeful.

I did find the whole plane coverage thing awful. Trying to stitch together a political agenda into it that had nothing to do with the accident. But that is what happens when you come from media/tv you are always looking for an angle. Sometimes it doesnt fit, that was definitely one of them.

You know, pre 2020 I would have been very upset with this Presidency and distressed every single day by all of this. But 2020 was a real turning point for me. I think others would call me red-pilled in that respect. To be fair, I still regularly consume media from all political perspectives but it stunning how much my political opinions and views have flipped since that time period. I keep waiting to drift back to how I used to think (many of my friends still think that way) but it just doesn't happen. There is some strange sensation you get, when you were 100% on one side and then find yourself almost on 100% the opposite side. Really whiplash.
 
very touchy

Nriul9f.jpeg


Cheers,,
Ian
 
if musk is running the country instead of trump (weird talking point imo)

who was running the country when biden was president?

kamala???
 
TomasM said:
Technology is certainly driving innovation, and A.I. appears to be accelerating this trend. Yet, what good is innovation if it doesn’t get utilized through labor. Labor is critical to success but I certainly understand the skepticism. Incentives may help but the country seems like they’ve fallen into a state of defeat and that’s a difficult hole from which to climb. Different people respond to different motivations and that make it difficult for leadership to inspire.
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I recently saw a chart (I don't have it on me right now) which showed that labor % of GDP gains is at all time lows and capital share % of GDP gains is at all time high. There was a brief rebound for labor during first Trump term, but after 4 years after Biden (and AI acceleration) it just hit new lows.

It's depressing, I agree, but I don't see it reversing. JD Vance spoke on some summit recently organized by Macron and said how we need to embrace AI and that it will make everyone better off... Yeah bro...but only if it comes with a major change in the social contract. Only if we impose taxes the AIs/robots which are then given to the people or something of that sort. The whole labor vs capital division is hardly relevant anymore in the world where the cost of knowledge and time lag of obtaining it is 0. Some say that the next political division will be humanists vs transhumanist.

It could turn out well but it's hard to be a young person in this world.
 
philostam said:
Yeah bro...but only if it comes with a major change in the social contract.
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Exactly.

Leaders: We want you to embrace something that will control every aspect of your life.

People: Again, why should we trust you?

philostam said:
The whole labor vs capital division is hardly relevant anymore in the world where the cost of knowledge and time lag of obtaining it is 0.
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I love how you say this and I agree with the trend up to a point of 99% on this concept. There will always be the creative side in all of the academic disciplines.

Conceptually, it really is seductive but so was the serpent in the garden and look how that turned out for us. Simply saying that this story is as old as recorded history.

Of course we can’t forget about Calhoun’s Mouse Utopia experiment. The last four years alone demonstrate how things can quickly break down societally. The last mouse died 4 years and 10 months after the experiment began.

I digress.
 
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Roses In The Vineyard said:
Looks like Trump might be onto something when it comes to Canada, rumor has it that Canada could be facing bankruptcy and there are other surprises.
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I’ve been following it and I see an opening where it could happen but it looked like it would be 50/50 at best.

Not sure what you mean by “surprises.” Is that a good surprise or a bad surprise?
 
You peeps understand how ridiculous this sounds, right? Canada is not on a bankrupcy. The narrative whatever Trump is trying to spew out is based on a zero sum base. It makes no sense. Where does het get the information that Canada would be in a state of bankrupcy?
 
dragulagu said:
You peeps understand how ridiculous this sounds, right? Canada is not on a bankrupcy. The narrative whatever Trump is trying to spew out is based on a zero sum base. It makes no sense. Where does het get the information that Canada would be in a state of bankrupcy?
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This is the first I have heard of the bankruptcy part. Though Canada does have a high degree of debt in a similar way to the United States in that their debt to GDP is relatively high. Here's a list that I gained from AI for debt to GDP in western countries (I asked for top 15). The cost of servicing this debt load makes interest payments a large portion of the annual budget and that obviously increases the need for GDP growth. There's many ways to look at this from a stance of creating policy.

It has also been mentioned that the US is subsidizing Canada to the tune of 250B annually and that Canada has had tariffs on the US which makes trade imbalanced. If those components were removed then it could cause a real problem for Canada to continue operating financially. The administrations stance has been that if the US is carrying them financially then they should be a state.

1742316549728.webp

My response was more aligned with how Trump might influence Canada to merge and to me it seems more probable that it would be in part rather than then entire country. This is merely speculative based on the discussions I've seen circulating.

No need to call people ridiculous, we're all friends here... This is still a generalized discussion without much detail.
 
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In hard numbers, the US on the highest on top in economical deficit, surpassing their 1 trillion decifift limit. That's how their Economy works, it is based on future loans:
www.cbo.gov

The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2025 to 2035

By the NumbersThe Budget Outlook, by Fiscal YearNotesSee Appendix B.
www.cbo.gov www.cbo.gov

Europe is in a grand deficit:
ec.europa.eu

Government debt at 88.2% of GDP in euro area

Overview At the end of the third quarter of 2024, the general government gross debt to GDP ratio in the euro area (EA20) stood at 88.2% and remained unchanged compared to the end of the second quarter of 2024. In the EU, the ratio also remained unchanged and stood at 81.6%. Compared with the...
ec.europa.eu ec.europa.eu

This is the forecast for the economics in the coming year:

Government Debt To GDP Forecast 2025/2026

Trading Economics provides data for 20 million economic indicators from 196 countries including actual values, consensus figures, forecasts, historical time series and news. Government Debt To GDP Forecast 2025/2026 - was last updated on Tuesday, March 18, 2025.
tradingeconomics.com tradingeconomics.com

Every country (taking a stance here because now I doubt every country now is in debt?) is taking loans and in the negative. It's the hard aftermath of how the current economy works. They make loans, loans are used for future investments, these loans set a certain value for the county. That's why the statement of Trump makes zero sense for Canada. They are not bankrupt, as they produce enough to generate wealth. It's just one of his many populist narrations he tries to push.

I'm not saying people here are ridiculous, I'm saying how ridiculous the narrative is.

It's like Trump saying Greenland is important for the defense strategy of the US and it should be owned by the US as the 51st state. The US already has military capacity based on Greenland. Same with areas in the Chinese Sea or anywhere world, maybe the US should claim every part in the world as theirs? It's nonsensical populist bullshit, like he always does.
 
TomasM said:
I’ve been following it and I see an opening where it could happen but it looked like it would be 50/50 at best.

Not sure what you mean by “surprises.” Is that a good surprise or a bad surprise?
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I need time to really look into it but one of the surprises involves the UK as the crown apparently may have only had partial ownership of Canada unlike the rest of the commonwealth.

en.wikipedia.org

Deed of Surrender - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org
 
@Roses In The Vineyard - Based on the video Canada the Illusion, all of the providences are technically sovereign states and have been since 1931. There has also never been a ratification by the providences to establish Canada as a wholistic country and as such it has only been operating under maritime law.

Prior to watching this video, I thought that they were in fact a ratified country but that each providence had the authority to succeed should a majority vote be completed by a providence.

All of this essentially says that the "federal" government of Canada is an illusion and the UK does not have any sovereign rights over the individual providences.

You're right, that is a surprise.

I do however wonder what the cost would be if a providence chose to become part of another country and if there would be any debt owed to another providence or corporate entity.
 
@philostam - I really believe that people see this as common sense. There's been this long standing feeling that the federal government is taking money through printing and inflation (essentially a hidden tax), and then giving that money to causes and countries that don't have value to the people. This is also coupled with a struggle that people have with past government attempting to change culture (which is very different between blue and red states) at a very rapid pace. People simply aren't capable of shouldering a high rate of cultural change.

The people want [the government to have] less control over their lives, a disconnect from war, and economic stimulation through growth (both GDP and financial). Trump is aggressive on all of these fronts and though people don't agree with all of his methods, they see democrats attempting to actively prevent the very things they want. The democrats really need to find a way to contribute to what people want if they expect to foster any support. People want solutions, and any time they hear complaining without sound solutions it just makes them dig their heels in deeper against those people complaining. The more the democrats commit to these repetitive narratives the more I start to believe that they are secretly supporting the administration indirectly in its efforts. Democrats aren't stupid, they have to know that their stance is empowering their supposed opposition. It's really baffling to me.
 
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philostam said:
Trump's popularity at all time high, Ds at all time low.

View attachment 96996

Ds also getting destroyed in the podcast arena, they're just not interesting to people.

View attachment 96997
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Not good. There needs to be a viable alternative. We cannot have a de facto one party state. All that being said I'm uncertain as to whether or not Democrats have a future, because the lockdowns and BLM riots spent the goodwill of the public on some short term gains. Now they are much despised by many former supporters.
 
TomasM said:
@philostam - I really believe that people see this as common sense. There's been this long standing feeling that the federal government is taking money through printing and inflation (essentially a hidden tax), and then giving that money to causes and countries that don't have value to the people. This is also coupled with a struggle that people have with past government attempting to change culture (which is very different between blue and red states) at a very rapid pace. People simply aren't capable of shouldering a high rate of cultural change.

The people want less control over the lives, a disconnect from war, and economic stimulation through growth (both GDP and financial). Trump is aggressive on all of these fronts and though people don't agree with all of his methods, they see democrats attempting to actively prevent the very things they want. The democrats really need to find a way to contribute to what people want if they expect to foster any support. People want solutions, and any time they hear complaining without sound solutions it just makes them dig their heels in deeper against those people complaining. The more the democrats commit to these repetitive narratives the more I start to believe that they are secretly supporting the administration indirectly in its efforts. Democrats aren't stupid, they have to know that their stance is empowering their supposed opposition. It's really baffling to me.
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It's common sense to me, too. I agree with your view, obviously. The Democrats had complete control of the narrative, media, popular culture and mind share even just 10 years ago, and somehow they managed to squander it. It's like when you've known a person for a long time and you've build a decent amount of trust and predictability, and then slowly they start doing weird shit and act irrationally; at first you're wilfully blind but after a while you start seeing them for what they are rather than what they were.

It's what they deserve. I mean there's still a lot of Democrats around that'll never vote red and that's fine, but they'll need to rebuild and push through some new people.
 
TomasM said:
@Roses In The Vineyard - Based on the video Canada the Illusion, all of the providences are technically sovereign states and have been since 1931. There has also never been a ratification by the providences to establish Canada as a wholistic country and as such it has only been operating under maritime law.

Prior to watching this video, I thought that they were in fact a ratified country but that each providence had the authority to succeed should a majority vote be completed by a providence.

All of this essentially says that the "federal" government of Canada is an illusion and the UK does not have any sovereign rights over the individual providences.

You're right, that is a surprise.

I do however wonder what the cost would be if a providence chose to become part of another country and if there would be any debt owed to another providence or corporate entity.
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I have to wonder but would think such details get worked out after the fact, two provinces are more or less already want to leave given they've been forced to bankroll the financial abyss that is Ontario for so long.
 
Roses In The Vineyard said:
I have to wonder but would think such details get worked out after the fact, two provinces are more or less already want to leave given they've been forced to bankroll the financial abyss that is Ontario for so long.
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I’ve been watching. I know exactly which ones and how things are evolving. That much money will trigger a domino effect. It’s funny, because I figured it out and then other people started saying it. So I know this thing is gaining some steam.

A & S.
 
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