Trump will win again

Reason said:
Someone remind me if I haven't come back around to it in a couple days (please)
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;)
 
ReasonEnduring said:
People underestimate the impact of the US on the stability of the modern world.

Has the US screwed up a few countries a few times, sure. Iran, certain Latin American nations, Afghanistan are not the best examples.

But compare the peace across the majority of the world since 1945 vs the constant European and Colonial Wars of the 17th, 18th and 19th Centuries.

This is purely down to the US as a Super Power, and their drive to encourage Democracies, especially post WW2 in Europe.

Admittely the Cold War played its part, but it was a Cold War of Democracy vs Communism, and US was the standard bearer for Democracy.

Because of the US for the better part of 100 years, the idea of how to be rich and successful in the world was - Democratic elections, a free capitalist economy and a free press that could report the truth.

Compare that to the pre-WW2 where the press and freedoms wererestrcited, and post WW2 Authoritarian regimes such as Russia and China.

If you are the wrong person in these countries, you disappear. The wrong ethnic group, the wrong religion, the wrong sexual orientation, you are targetted and removed.

The press is restricted (and in recent times, the Doctor that discovered the Corona Virus was silenced by the Chinese government, allowing to spread further... extremely stupid).

Despite all of its faults, the fact we live in a world as free as it is is down entirely to the US.

If the US falls, expect more regional wars, more violence, more refugees and the slow death of Democracy. New Tyrants will rise and the enlightment will be nothing but a memory.

Don't forget, in 1984 shows us a world of unrestricted Tyrants messing with history, believe me we do not want that.
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How about you ask the people of e.g. South-Korea, the Phillipines and Chili how they felt about the US imposing (some sort of) "democracy" on them.
 
China is a lot less stable than people realize. The way their economy leans on construction and a sort of sustained forward economic momentum creates things like ghost cities. A lot of it is also built upon outside investment and especially trade with the U.S. The United States can get cheap manufactured goods from India, Japan, or a few other places but China is disproportionately dependant on exports to America. Meaning that not only is much of the stability of their economy reliant on sustaining certain conditions that cannot continue indefinitely, but that America could especially collapse the Chinese economy with embargo alone. Add this together with the fact that China is not a uniform culture nation like they project and in reality they have quite a number of different minorities within the country that despise the government in addition to an age old tradition of china imploding into multiple simultaneous civil wars and you can conclude you will not have to learn Chinese regardless of the American empire existing or not. China is a very shaky paper tiger.

As for Russia the whole reason why we're seeing this power projection and land grabs from them is because we did not disband NATO at the time the Soviet Union broke apart. Seeing as how the whole point of NATO was to counter the soviets it really sets the tone for future relations when we not only maintain NATO as is but actually expand it. (I think we added Poland and Estonia but I don't remember you can look up NATO's extension in the 90s after the collapse of the Soviet Union if you really need specifics). Walking up our alliance against them right up to their door and reneging on our "if you abandon communism we'll send you economic relief" promises are what led to the current crises with Russia. Bush Sr. and Bill Clinton created this problem and there are still diplomatic solutions available to us that do not involve imperialism.

So no, none of you need to learn Russian or Chinese, your politicians are scaring you so you'll accept things from them that you wouldn't normally like say... the United States maintaining its cold war global defense hegemony even though the Soviet Union is no more.
 
Professor Snep said:
How about you ask the people of e.g. South-Korea, the Phillipines and Chili how they felt about the US imposing (some sort of) "democracy" on them.
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South Korea loves not being part of North Korea.

Phillipines loves not speaking Japanese.

Chilli probably benefited from the Monroe Doctrine.

Not perfect at all, but far better than say, being part of North Korea, being a colony of Japane, or having European Powers trying to make a Napoleon-esk Mexico out of the rest of Latin America.

acd said:
What do ya'll think of Bloomberg?
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Bernie is going to tear that man to shreds on the Dem Stage. Billionaire buys his way into the race? Even if somehow Bloomberg wins then Bernie Bros and Social Democracts won't support him and he loses to Trump.

Reason said:
China is a lot less stable than people realize. The way their economy leans on construction and a sort of sustained forward economic momentum creates things like ghost cities. A lot of it is also built upon outside investment and especially trade with the U.S. The United States can get cheap manufactured goods from India, Japan, or a few other places but China is disproportionately dependant on exports to America. Meaning that not only is much of the stability of their economy reliant on sustaining certain conditions that cannot continue indefinitely, but that America could especially collapse the Chinese economy with embargo alone. Add this together with the fact that China is not a uniform culture nation like they project and in reality they have quite a number of different minorities within the country that despise the government in addition to an age old tradition of china imploding into multiple simultaneous civil wars and you can conclude you will not have to learn Chinese regardless of the American empire existing or not. China is a very shaky paper tiger.

As for Russia the whole reason why we're seeing this power projection and land grabs from them is because we did not disband NATO at the time the Soviet Union broke apart. Seeing as how the whole point of NATO was to counter the soviets it really sets the tone for future relations when we not only maintain NATO as is but actually expand it. (I think we added Poland and Estonia but I don't remember you can look up NATO's extension in the 90s after the collapse of the Soviet Union if you really need specifics). Walking up our alliance against them right up to their door and reneging on our "if you abandon communism we'll send you economic relief" promises are what led to the current crises with Russia. Bush Sr. and Bill Clinton created this problem and there are still diplomatic solutions available to us that do not involve imperialism.

So no, none of you need to learn Russian or Chinese, your politicians are scaring you so you'll accept things from them that you wouldn't normally like say... the United States maintaining its cold war global defense hegemony even though the Soviet Union is no more.
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China and Russia are shakey, but tis what they represent more than anything. Alt Right and Crtl Left politicians and ideologies are popping up a lot more frequently in Europe.

Imagine France getting a Le Pen or Germany ending up with AFD. Or a Psuedo Communist somewhere.

Even if the current Chinese and Russian governements fall, they won't be replaced with Democracies. Just Tyrants of a different colour and their goals will be roughly the same.

And if they fragment, imagine a nulcear armed Warlord, or Nukes lost to the hands of Terrorists... that is extremely dangerous.

However if a Democracy falls, its never replaced with another Democracy...
 
larry806q said:
Memory is that short? Bernie can do whatever he likes and as was proven in 2016 the DNC can do whatever THEY like and liking Bernie is not in the top 100.
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Bernie still stands a chance, the DNC does play dirty but they tend to bend rules rather than break them.

Bernie is the Trump of the Dems this time around. High Floor candidate so the chance he wins isn't too low compared to 2016. That said, the Moderates and Pro-Business voters are warry of him. Even some Unions aren't backing him because of his No Private Healthcare policy.

I think it will be Bernie or Pete. It depends if the Moderates rally rally around Pete or if Amy or Bloomberg split the vote too thin.

Social Democrats probably only make about 20-30% of the Dem voting base, add maybe another 10-15% Bernie or Bust supporters and there is still a good 55% to play for if it can gather around a single candidate.

I still believe Bernie will lose to Trump because of his pro illegal immigrant policies. If Trump says "Look at Bernie, spending your tax money on healthcare for illegal immigrants" (an actually policy of Bernies) then Trump gets a significant boost from that. US voters don't like thier taxes spent on illlegal immigrants.
 
The DNC debate is delicious.

I haven't had this much fun since Ed Miliband went up against David Cameron back in the UK.

Bloomberg appears to be sinking faster theTitanic.

So much drama. Pete and Amy ripping each others throats out. Bernie at the bottom of a pile on. Warren trying to be relevant. Biden actually awake for a change.

I love the horse race so much. Pity it affects us all. This is my Game of Thrones.
 
ReasonEnduring said:
China and Russia are shakey, but tis what they represent more than anything. Alt Right and Crtl Left politicians and ideologies are popping up a lot more frequently in Europe
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Yes but that's due to the brainless belief that there's no difference between Somalians and Germans, and other similarly moronic beliefs
ReasonEnduring said:
Even if the current Chinese and Russian governements fall, they won't be replaced with Democracies. Just Tyrants of a different colour and their goals will be roughly the same.

And if they fragment, imagine a nulcear armed Warlord, or Nukes lost to the hands of Terrorists... that is extremely dangerous
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You don't know that the future governments will be tyrannical and if nuclear armed warlords are the future then you will have to contend with that anyways when these houses of cards collapse on thier own.

Besides the lesson of Vietnam is that it doesn't matter how right you are, you can't drop enough bombs or send enough aid to keep a country that has decided to go completely stupid from going completely stupid. There are exceptions maybe but you'll never have this world that you are hoping for. If enough people aim down, then down we go, like it or not. What we can do is aim up, and let the citizens of every nation aspire to the greatest good for thier nation. That is how you minimize the fuckerage of the world.
 
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