US > Iran conflict begins

[just me]

The CIA and MI5 guided a coup and installed the Shah, because the West was nervous about Iran nationalizing its oil.

You stated, "because the West was nervous about Iran nationalizing its oil." I'd love to read gov files that helped steer them to those levels.

WW I have anything to do with this all? Why was there a WW I?

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Because US govt meddling in other countries is not about saving people.

Lots and lots of "meddlers" out there. I am one who will vouch for the way I said it. We see, some of us more than others, only small parts of actuality. There is more meddling in the instability of important things than "let's go meddle somewhere with someone." Much meddling is reactions to something important that may get out of orbit, and one would rather want to know "who" is meddling than who is working with who. Curse those who do not concern themselves with the people.

That's my military at work over there. I give my loyalty to our military. May God watch over us all. There are ways to silence the explosions.
There are ways to silence militaries. It takes a strong and wise person to silence himself among the fighting and carrying on, then to speak in tune with what he has to say at that appropriate time.

The money is not going to American people in general, it is going to the elite, who, by the way think the government is their lapdog.

I've never been in position to receive as an elite. I am thankful for our doctors and medical folk, hospitals, roads, highways, order, and the other things we use every day. Thankful for the things we need. Our safety, etc.

I think we are blank slates, whose inherent nature is the drive to meet needs in our self interest.

Certainly not we all.

 

[mintoots]

@just me i'll keep it simple because, after all, there is no reasoning with anyone who refuses to consider any new information.

Ordinary American lives are being sacrificed for the gain of a very exclusionary elite. I am not American, but I will never support that. Americans and non-Americans alike deserve to be freed from the clutches of capitalists that have effectively enslaved them. Willing subjects, of course, are a lost cause.

@philostam Iran is a key partner in China's Belt and Road Initiative which they have heavily invested in. They have a lot to gain from supporting Iran. In fact, Iran has just announced that they will not attack the ships that pass through Hormuz IF they trade in Yuan and altogether abandon the petrodollar. This very war is opening the imperial seat to China. That's not little. China benefits majorly from this. It's not just the supply of oil as a resource that is contingent to all of this ----it is the financial system that upheld the economic mechanisms of the U.S. empire.

Will China actively shoot weapons out? Likely not. It has learned to keep its cards close to its chess so their moves remain invisible to naked eyesight.

Does it mean Iran is weak? Absolutely not. Iran is already showing that it is willing to burn this wick slowly but very surely. I don't think Iran is being choked here, at all. Quite the opposite.

 

[just me]

Food for thought

Saad al-Hariri | Biography & Facts | Britannica

Saad al-Hariri, Lebanese prime minister (2009–11; 2016–20), leader of the Future Movement party, the largest contingent of the March 14 bloc. He has been a leading figure in Lebanese politics since the 2005 assassination of his father, the former prime minister Rafic al-Hariri (1992–98; 2000–04).

www.britannica.com

@mintoots I dare to say our understanding is mixed from current affairs
and the past, and what we all hear and read would be better understood by combining both.
We also must realize all information should never be trusted. We should also listen to our intuition..........and God.

 

[philostam]

@philostam Iran is a key partner in China's Belt and Road Initiative which they have heavily invested in. They have a lot to gain from supporting Iran. In fact, Iran has just announced that they will not attack the ships that pass through Hormuz IF they trade in Yuan and altogether abandon the petrodollar. This very war is opening the imperial seat to China. That's not little. China benefits majorly from this. It's not just the supply of oil as a resource that is contingent to all of this ----it is the financial system that upheld the economic mechanisms of the U.S. empire.

Will China actively shoot weapons out? Likely not. It has learned to keep its cards close to its chess so their moves remain invisible to naked eyesight.

Does it mean Iran is weak? Absolutely not. Iran is already showing that it is willing to burn this wick slowly but very surely. I don't think Iran is being choked here, at all. Quite the opposite.

Maybe. I think this war was a mistake by the US after Trump spent the whole of last year trying to lower the price of oil and running on "no war" promises. However, now that we are here, I think it's disengenious to portray it as complete disaster for the US. Iran is suffering too, especially if US destroys their oil production facilities on Kharg island. Their military is already decimated. Strait of Hormuz is a huge bottleneck but I struggle to see how Iran can keep it closed with their drones. It's more of an insurance/cost issue than their military capability. If US and it's allies want to, they can escort the tankers and bear the insurance costs.

All the meanwhile, US can make Iran into a parking lot. There aerial dominance over Iran is scary. And there's little to no public support for Iran anyway - this is not like Ukraine. Russia and China will not support Iran in the same way as the West does with Ukraine. So with all that in mind, I think a peace deal will be struck in the next weeks.

 

[just me]

"Wanting the destruction of Israel" must stop. The enriched uranium

to be cont'd

 

[mintoots]

Food for thought

Saad al-Hariri | Biography & Facts | Britannica

Saad al-Hariri, Lebanese prime minister (2009–11; 2016–20), leader of the Future Movement party, the largest contingent of the March 14 bloc. He has been a leading figure in Lebanese politics since the 2005 assassination of his father, the former prime minister Rafic al-Hariri (1992–98; 2000–04).

www.britannica.com

@mintoots I dare to say our understanding is mixed from current affairs
and the past, and what we all hear and read would be better understood by combining both.
We also must realize all information should never be trusted. We should also listen to our intuition..........and God.

I wasn't telling you trust it. I was inviting you to consider new data, verify it for yourself, then revisit your opinion. Intuition is great for a gut feel. God is presumably good, always, but it is undeniable that God's name has repeateadly been used in vain for man's folly.

Maybe. I think this war was a mistake by the US after Trump spent the whole of last year trying to lower the price of oil and running on "no war" promises. However, now that we are here, I think it's disengenious to portray it as complete disaster for the US. Iran is suffering too, especially if US destroys their oil production facilities on Kharg island. Their military is already decimated. Strait of Hormuz is a huge bottleneck but I struggle to see how Iran can keep it closed with their drones. It's more of an insurance/cost issue than their military capability. If US and it's allies want to, they can escort the tankers and bear the insurance costs.

All the meanwhile, US can make Iran into a parking lot. There aerial dominance over Iran is scary. And there's little to no public support for Iran anyway - this is not like Ukraine. Russia and China will not support Iran in the same way as the West does with Ukraine. So with all that in mind, I think a peace deal will be struck in the next weeks.

This is inconclusive because there is no real data on what is truly going on in the literal underground of Iran.

I agree that they are definitely using the economic bottleneck thoroughly and are less reliant on armpower than the US. Yet, choking the economic strain is like squeezing the US by the balls. It may not be lethal, yet, but it will definitely hurt. I agree with you that it becomes a battle of longevity at that point, but since the 12day war of 2025, something tells me Iran has been preparing for this.

Additionally, the Iran military system is different from the traditional military system we are accustomed to. There are evidences of the IRGC having a bigger network than we normally see. There is the Artesh, which is the official military but the IRGC itself has a mechanism that can recruit volunteers without even needing a military draft. It was built to protect their revolution. This is why killing Khamenei was a grave mistake because now more civilians are incetivized to get absorbed into the IRGC.

On the other hand, if the US will in fact send boots on the ground, the effects of that to domestic United States is something critical. It will become a very divisive subject among US citizens, and economically challenged one. God only knows what that will do to this already polarized nation with such a dark history on civil unrest, especially when citizens are starting to get hungry.

I completely agree with you. It was a grave mistake on the part of the US to even start this war. It was a mistake to play with Israel. But, hey, that's how "the big boys" play. The whole war is devoid of a deeper understanding of how non-US networks truly work.

 

[just me]

Thank you, @mintoots . One can almost tell when a man walks with God. A man who has unselfishly learned the ways of God and lives it should be judged very carefully. When a man walks with God, the only judgment that is fitting is the kind that comes from someone who is themselves aligned with God. Physical things most people see. Spiritual things require spiritual sight.

 

[Umai]

Trump's still excited about the Maduro raid and the 12 day war; Netanyahu spies his chance. Two weeks on and now we've got a shipping lane to keep airtight for the sake of the western economy (with the implications of further western-wide drifts to the political extremes as living standards are squeezed further), and they've got hundreds of square miles from which drones can be launched from a cave, or from the back of a civilian pickup truck and nothing much to lose to retaliation because there's hardly any targets left and I'm thinking of something the IRA said to the Brits years ago: “you have to get it right every time; we only have to get it right once”. How much can those companies really trust the US to keep those ships and their employees safe, every time?

This is not the end of the war, it's the beginning, the easy bit, like conquering Kabul was and if there's no targets left then it's the end of the beginning because the American military is a giant hammer that looks great as long as there's plenty of nails lying around. There'll be deals getting made, but they won't be on Trump's terms and he'll come to learn that there was a reason that every president since 1979 stayed out of this one.

My sense is that this is a major stepping stone in the transition of global power and leadership from west to east - that will be complete by the last quarter of the century - and Trump is doing all the work.