Trump will win again

Guys, the bonds started selling off after FED cut 50bps in September. This was the trigger. Stocks at all time highs, no recession in sight, and they cut 50bps. Of course this is related to public debt, which is too high and they need to roll it over at cheaper rates.

Bonds will continue to get slaughtered. It is what it is. Bond holders had a wonderful 50 years but now it's over. Even more money will get divested from bonds to stocks, gold and bitcoin.
 
TomasM said:
Trump had high deficit spending only one of his four years in office and that was the year Covid hit (2020).

Biden’s deficit has been higher every year with the exception of 2020.

Still the trend line shows that spending will continue unless there is a change.

View attachment 96078
Click to expand...
My favorite topic, the deficit! Relevant video:

The reason why deficit spending spirals should be obvious and it should also be obvious that the driver was not anything Biden did. I do not say that as a defender of Biden exactly but just as an exercise of logic:

when you take on that amount of debt so quickly and then interest rates go up to 6% from being basically zero for years and years, what is the logical path interest on servicing our debt is going to take? Biden could have done absolutely nothing and spent 0 cents and the debt spiral would have continued like that because of interest. That is compounding 101.

As it stands from the point of that video, for every $1.00 you spent in taxes, about 36 cents of that is paying on interest alone . Meaning it makes pretty much no difference in paying down the debt. 45% of our taxes that we take in cover only interest on our debt! That is fucked levels.

COVID, the shutting down of the economy and the consequential spending of the government in response to that has caused a classic debt spiral. Remember when Greece went bankrupt in 2010? This is the same exact thing that happened to them, but on a smaller scale since the whole world wasn't embroiled in it alongside them. And yes we can say that the global recession also impacted it but the whole thing played out far worse in Greece for some major reasons. Huge spending on their social welfare programs eventually resulted in a debt to GDP ratio that was not sustainable.

debt-to-ratio.png

You can see the sharp uptick from what was pretty stable for that entire decade, then the crash, then you can see things climb for a little bit and lo-and behold what is that blip later on? COVID. And what has happened? Another crash.
only-time.png

This one is the United States, a slightly broader one with more years. It is a lot steadier than Greece but if you notice, there have only been dips, there was never a full crash. And then uh-oh. Huge spike and now equally huge dip happening.

Anyway this is not actually directed to you, but yeah in general, I think the events have already been set in motion during COVID to create one of the worst economic metldowns we have seen in the 2000s and it looks like it is going to be long and drawn out and I don't really think Harris or Trump had any sort of ability to reverse the debt snowball we are on and what will come from it.

Some people will blame politicians for their actions for the reason why inflation gets worse or even deflation occurs, but in reality, they were trying to cope with an impossible financial situation that is out of control.
 
@slant I can get behind COVID as the trigger for the house of cards debt falling because it makes sense. Still, the amount of debt in the house of cards was predominantly created since 2000.

The cause of that debt can be traced back to governmental policy in the 90’s. It triggered the tech bubble, the housing crisis, and the Fed continued to prop up everything rather than letting the markets self correct.

I certainly wasn’t blaming Biden for the debt crisis, he’s only one piece in a string of failures that spans decades.

All I was saying is that the election last night didn’t create the bond sell today.

Nice write-up and I appreciate it.
 
TomasM said:
All I was saying is that the election last night didn’t create the bond sell today.

Nice write-up and I appreciate it.
Click to expand...

I mean we can just pull up the 10Y yield chart and you can clearly see that the trend reversed in September after FED cut 50bps. Trump had minimal effect so far, the trend was already in place. And even so, the yields are still lower than in June of this year. So this is not some massive sell off due to Trump being elected.

1731044004508.webp
 
I thought about it a bit more, and it made me think.

I shared a news tidbit reported from multiple sources.

I don’t know their reason(s) other than what they said. I don’t know their knowledge, or lack thereof. I don’t know if they were telling the truth. I don’t know if they had an agenda.

They shared a reason.

If that doesn’t sit right with you, go do research.

I don’t own any bonds. I know next to nothing about that.

If you take issue with what was shared, fine. I can’t answer to that.

Your approach seems very odd. Classic kill the messenger.

I won’t make that mistake again. You taught me my lesson.

With All Due Regards,
Ian
 
aeon said:
I thought about it a bit more, and it made me think.

I shared a news tidbit reported from multiple sources.

I don’t know their reason(s) other than what they said. I don’t know their knowledge, or lack thereof. I don’t know if they were telling the truth. I don’t know if they had an agenda.

They shared a reason.

If that doesn’t sit right with you, go do research.

I don’t own any bonds. I know next to nothing about that.

If you take issue with what was shared, fine. I can’t answer to that.

Your approach seems very odd. Classic kill the messenger.

I won’t make that mistake again. You taught me my lesson.

With All Due Regards,
Ian
Click to expand...

I think mainstream media just jumped the gun, again. I mean bond yields were expected to rise, but they have not yet that much. Maybe they will. I think most market participants expect it to but why report it like it already happened?

It's like when they say BITCOIN CRASHED 3% today, while ignoring that it is up 20% over the month. They zoom in too much on like minute by minute ticks.

I am definitely not shutting you down, just providing context and my read of the situation.
It's true that in general market expects Trump to be more inflationary than Harris would be. But market participants are often wrong.
We also need to mention that stock market loved Trump winning. Here we can definitely see a fast acceleration in the last 2 days.

We shall see.
By the way, Powel was asked about this yday on the press conference and he said yields are rising because economic growth is stronger than it was expected.
 
aeon said:
I thought about it a bit more, and it made me think.

I shared a news tidbit reported from multiple sources.

I don’t know their reason(s) other than what they said. I don’t know their knowledge, or lack thereof. I don’t know if they were telling the truth. I don’t know if they had an agenda.

They shared a reason.

If that doesn’t sit right with you, go do research.

I don’t own any bonds. I know next to nothing about that.

If you take issue with what was shared, fine. I can’t answer to that.

Your approach seems very odd. Classic kill the messenger.

I won’t make that mistake again. You taught me my lesson.

With All Due Regards,
Ian
Click to expand...
I’m sorry @aeon . I didn’t mean to shoot the messenger and I wasn’t trying to seem pointed and aggressive towards you.

I’ve been tracking this problem for a very long time and sometimes I want people to understand what is happening. I don’t do it because I want to demonstrate intellect, but instead because I care about what we are going through and I feel that people deserve to understand the truth.

The problem is greed and it has been caused by Wall Street and supported by politicians and the Fed. It’s impossible know all of the key players in politics, because there are some good politicians that genuinely wanted to serve the country. However, the finger can be pointed at some core financial institutions and Presidents that signed governmental policies that supported those institutions and their lust for greed and power.

Again, please forgive me if I came across as abrasive.
 
philostam said:
I think mainstream media just jumped the gun, again.
Click to expand...
Fair enough, but I don’t consider the Financial Times mainstream media.

The AP, Fox, and NPR? Certainly.

Cheers,
Ian
 
philostam said:
By the way, Powel was asked about this yday on the press conference and he said yields are rising because economic growth is stronger than it was expected.
Click to expand...

I saw an article about Powel stating he would not step down if asked by Trump. Trump did appoint him but was not happy with his inability to act quicker when requested. He will be in his position until 2026 I believe.

I really don’t trust the Fed and their black box of capital market “adjustments.” I know I’m not alone in these feelings.
 
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TomasM said:
I really don’t trust the Fed and their black box of capital market “adjustments.” I know I’m not alone in these feelings.
Click to expand...
Understatement of the year.

Fed Up,
Ian
 
 
slant said:
My favorite topic, the deficit! Relevant video:

The reason why deficit spending spirals should be obvious and it should also be obvious that the driver was not anything Biden did. I do not say that as a defender of Biden exactly but just as an exercise of logic:

when you take on that amount of debt so quickly and then interest rates go up to 6% from being basically zero for years and years, what is the logical path interest on servicing our debt is going to take? Biden could have done absolutely nothing and spent 0 cents and the debt spiral would have continued like that because of interest. That is compounding 101.

As it stands from the point of that video, for every $1.00 you spent in taxes, about 36 cents of that is paying on interest alone . Meaning it makes pretty much no difference in paying down the debt. 45% of our taxes that we take in cover only interest on our debt! That is fucked levels.

COVID, the shutting down of the economy and the consequential spending of the government in response to that has caused a classic debt spiral. Remember when Greece went bankrupt in 2010? This is the same exact thing that happened to them, but on a smaller scale since the whole world wasn't embroiled in it alongside them. And yes we can say that the global recession also impacted it but the whole thing played out far worse in Greece for some major reasons. Huge spending on their social welfare programs eventually resulted in a debt to GDP ratio that was not sustainable.

debt-to-ratio.png

You can see the sharp uptick from what was pretty stable for that entire decade, then the crash, then you can see things climb for a little bit and lo-and behold what is that blip later on? COVID. And what has happened? Another crash.
only-time.png

This one is the United States, a slightly broader one with more years. It is a lot steadier than Greece but if you notice, there have only been dips, there was never a full crash. And then uh-oh. Huge spike and now equally huge dip happening.

Anyway this is not actually directed to you, but yeah in general, I think the events have already been set in motion during COVID to create one of the worst economic metldowns we have seen in the 2000s and it looks like it is going to be long and drawn out and I don't really think Harris or Trump had any sort of ability to reverse the debt snowball we are on and what will come from it.

Some people will blame politicians for their actions for the reason why inflation gets worse or even deflation occurs, but in reality, they were trying to cope with an impossible financial situation that is out of control.
Click to expand...
Debt based economy just has to go otherwise civilization will be held back in the long run as tired old and highly corrupt systems that favored a few have no real future. Shouldn't surprise anyone that ultimately there will be a default on this debt both in the public and private sectors.
 
TomasM said:
I saw an article about Powel stating he would not step down if asked by Trump. Trump did appoint him but was not happy with his inability to act quicker when requested. He will be in his position until 2026 I believe.

I really don’t trust the Fed and their black box of capital market “adjustments.” I know I’m not alone in these feelings.
Click to expand...
"The table is tilted, the game is rigged" George Carlin
 
Roses In The Vineyard said:
Debt based economy just has to go otherwise civilization will be held back in the long run as tired old and highly corrupt systems that favored a few have no real future. Shouldn't surprise anyone that ultimately there will be a default on this debt both in the public and private sectors.
Click to expand...
YES! The foundation of the currency is debt. Every dollar that is issued has an equal dollar of debt. If all of the debt was paid off then there would be no money. Still, this makes it impossible to pay off the interest associated with the debt because the additional money needed to pay interest was never created.

Under these conditions, we have created a system that forces people to compete for an ever shrinking number of available dollars [caused by interest payments] with the only winner being the creator of money (the Fed) and the expanders of the money supply (commercial banks). Everyone else eventually looses under these conditions - EVERYONE! When everyone looses then the banks and Fed fail because they no longer have value. The entire system, when coupled with governmental politics, breeds inequality from the top down.

The concept of debt does have some value but a system of debt is destructive.

I think this is why a digital currency like Bitcoin is appealing. Instead of creating money through debt it creates money through work until it reaches a foundational capacity. Then it divides itself as a means to meet the needs of growth. Still, it has drawbacks and that’s why we see different digital currencies for different purposes. I’m not suggesting this is the solution, only that wealth and influence comes from work and effort rather than control of a top-down monetary system in the hands of a small group.
 
Roses In The Vineyard said:
Click to expand...
In the debate between Trump and Harris, Trump said that Biden didn’t like her and I don’t recall a response on her part (not that she would.) Now we see that Pelosi didn’t appear to want Harris and I’ve heard rumblings that Biden’s wife doesn’t like her. We also saw Biden put on a MAGA hat and smile at a gathering after he withdrew from the race.

It could just be pettiness but I’m starting to smell something fishy when it comes to the awareness and coordination between Trump and Biden. This could also include the connection by both of them to Ukraine and Russia.

This election appears to have been given to Trump. Biden literally set up a Grand Slam for Trump by taking in all of the Dem resources and then waited till the last minute to drop out of the race. There was also the move by RFK where he appeared to be joining the Dems before moving over to the Trump team.

I know it seems impossible but I do not trust politicians.
 
Gotta blame somebody lol.
idk how y'all(the general public) don't remember that this is exactly what went down.
Obama and others softly protested, on deaf ears.
Can't be too loud or you'll get the boot from the party.
Literally the reason why we have Drumpf in the first place.
Both sides are their own cult 🦉🕷️

Lol
 
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TomasM said:
In the debate between Trump and Harris, Trump said that Biden didn’t like her and I don’t recall a response on her part (not that she would.) Now we see that Pelosi didn’t appear to want Harris and I’ve heard rumblings that Biden’s wife doesn’t like her. We also saw Biden put on a MAGA hat and smile at a gathering after he withdrew from the race.

It could just be pettiness but I’m starting to smell something fishy when it comes to the awareness and coordination between Trump and Biden. This could also include the connection by both of them to Ukraine and Russia.

This election appears to have been given to Trump. Biden literally set up a Grand Slam for Trump by taking in all of the Dem resources and then waited till the last minute to drop out of the race. There was also the move by RFK where he appeared to be joining the Dems before moving over to the Trump team.

I know it seems impossible but I do not trust politicians.
Click to expand...
Keep in mind, Trump was a Democrat and donated to them until relatively recently.

Bernie Sanders recently commented that the Democrats USED to be the party for workers, implying that the parties have switched.

It seems like the Republicans used to be the party of the wealthy and businessmen. Now it looks a lot more populist, albeit on the more capitalistic end of the spectrum (job creation seems preferred over unionist interests).
 
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