My reasons for why Harris will win:
1. She'll win the popular vote because republicans haven't won the polular vote in 30 years or so.
2. She's younger, sharper, more direct, more likeable than Trump or Biden, and has had tremendously reenergised the dem base, as shown by the money she has collected literally overnight, and the large amount of first time donors. They went from do-nothing-democrats to do-shit-democrats. Even her gloves off approach to Trump is very energising to her voters. The only demographic I can think of being put off by this is older ''centrists'' who are stupid enough to not admit they're actually RINOs and would vote for third party anyway because Trump is too white trash for their cultured palettes.
3. Despite fox trying every insult they can cook up to shift people's feelings, she gives good vibes, she gives mom, and people vote with feelings.
4. Trump chose JD for VP
5. JD is wildly unpopular, and together with Trump, they're very successfully alienating female voters. I mean, JD is an unknown who has nothing to show for himself, gets picked for VP and comes out and jumpscares everyone with his hate for cats, ladies, and cat ladies. Their campaign is focused on male voters, and I think it's always bad news when politicians base their candidacy on gender politics (Hillary is an example).
6. Project25 had an underwhelming media coverage unfortunately, but for those who are paying attention, it's a terrifying game plan, right out of Hitler's and Stalin's playbooks, for what's to come in a (2nd?) Trump term. It relatively flew under the radar, and Trump denied he's related to it, although JD is co-author lol, but most liberals are smart enough to know that, Trumps first term almost caught him off guard, and he was mostly flailing the entire time. Now he has an organised network of Nazis to guide him through his second term, who know how to push his buttons and manipulate him better.
7. More people suffer from socioeconomic problems and more people are paying attention and have a lot to lose or win from change of policies. I mean they always did, but now they're really feeling it. I have personally spoken to and seen online quite a few people giving a very personal issue as the main reason for voting Kamala.
To be fair, a stupid VP choice like Shapiro could turn this around to a degree, so we have to wait and see what happens the next few days.