Trump will win again
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niar
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Let's talk about economy for a second. Trump promised a new tsunami of tariffs if elected: 60% (!) on Chinese imports and a blanket 10% on all other international imports. Can you imagine how catastrophic this will be? Normally tariffs are used by governments surgically to open a market for a specific American product (and job). A tarriff on all international trade, against all markets, for no reason other than populism is insane and will hurt everyone's pockets through taxes and inflation among other things.
In 2018, Trump's less widespread tariffs on China cost massive bailouts to farmers that cost over 90% of the tariff proceeds (lmao), more than the US nuclear program funds; $11.5 billion in 2017 and more than $32 billion in 2020. But while angry republican farmers got some compensation, other businesses and taxpayers never did and never will.
His new plan would set of a global trade war, everyone would impose tariffs on everyone, because where does it stop? And guess who's pockets the difference is gonna come off of. Investors would back out, jobs would be killed, taxes increased, inflation over the roof. Common goods that are now in competitive prices will have their prices increased due to increased demand and scarcity, and imagine how that will go in a country that has no safety nets and no caps for most prices.
This is just more evidence of how dumbo Trump is a pawn set up by the usual suspects to distabilise the US and global economy, and it would get a lot worse on a second term with his entourage of psychophants wisening up on how to manipulate him and achieve their (written and published lol) agenda.
The thing about Trump's plans and policies is that they are wildly unpopular. The majority of people are not blinded troglodytes that wish for a christian nationalist state above all, and don't agree with these policies.
I recently saw a rightwing pundit, I think Charlie Kirk, saying something along the lines of ''unfortunately a lot of these policies are unpopular even among republicans, so we need to not tell people about big picture plans until they vote, and then we can do whatever we want once elected''
...
(Which is exactly what Trump is doing right now with the issue of abortion by the way)
And although I think the majority of them has been conditioned to think that cynicism and cruelty are the greatest virtues one can possess, I think and hope just enough of them have adequately suffered last season to know better now.
In 2018, Trump's less widespread tariffs on China cost massive bailouts to farmers that cost over 90% of the tariff proceeds (lmao), more than the US nuclear program funds; $11.5 billion in 2017 and more than $32 billion in 2020. But while angry republican farmers got some compensation, other businesses and taxpayers never did and never will.
His new plan would set of a global trade war, everyone would impose tariffs on everyone, because where does it stop? And guess who's pockets the difference is gonna come off of. Investors would back out, jobs would be killed, taxes increased, inflation over the roof. Common goods that are now in competitive prices will have their prices increased due to increased demand and scarcity, and imagine how that will go in a country that has no safety nets and no caps for most prices.
This is just more evidence of how dumbo Trump is a pawn set up by the usual suspects to distabilise the US and global economy, and it would get a lot worse on a second term with his entourage of psychophants wisening up on how to manipulate him and achieve their (written and published lol) agenda.
The thing about Trump's plans and policies is that they are wildly unpopular. The majority of people are not blinded troglodytes that wish for a christian nationalist state above all, and don't agree with these policies.
I recently saw a rightwing pundit, I think Charlie Kirk, saying something along the lines of ''unfortunately a lot of these policies are unpopular even among republicans, so we need to not tell people about big picture plans until they vote, and then we can do whatever we want once elected''
...
(Which is exactly what Trump is doing right now with the issue of abortion by the way)
And although I think the majority of them has been conditioned to think that cynicism and cruelty are the greatest virtues one can possess, I think and hope just enough of them have adequately suffered last season to know better now.
SlowUpTake
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The Superseding Trump Indictment Is about Obstruction as Much as Immunity - emptywheel
The superseding indictment against Trump didn't, just, remove all mention of Trump's government officials and tweak the language to emphasize his role as candidate. It also shored up the focus on preventing Joe Biden's electoral certificates from being counted in a way that DOJ has started to do...
www.emptywheel.net
SlowUpTake
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Roses In The Vineyard
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SlowUpTake
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that vid is only three and a half hrs long, how are we supposed to get wisdom in such a short period of time?
Edit: I have listened to quite a bit of this and have to say this guy is full of it, is there some kind of law or regulation requiring a publicly disclosed neurological examination of a sitting president? (maybe there should be but there is not) is the dem party required by law to have primaries (no and alluding to the idea that they nominated an individual who did not run in one as being mind control is bs) The case of the Progressive mag vs the US was resolved in favor of the magazine which he fails to disclose in his darkly alluded to idea of being executed for coming affowl of the the espionage act.
I can see how people eat this stuff up but it is lazy intellectualism at best.
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philostam
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Nature is healing after Kamala started speaking more about taxing unrealized gains, price controls etc.
Encouraging to also see ex-Democrats RFK and Tulsi Gabbard endorsing Trump.
Below the probability of winning according to the favorite liberal modeler Nate Silver.
Encouraging to also see ex-Democrats RFK and Tulsi Gabbard endorsing Trump.
Below the probability of winning according to the favorite liberal modeler Nate Silver.
SlowUpTake
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Judging the economies of each administration is dependent upon one's judgement of the previous administration's handling of the covid pandemic.
philostam
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Yeah and what has the GDP growth ever done for the people? GDP is literally just the sum of all transactions in the economy. If rich people are flipping houses between each-other for 10 million, that comes out brilliant for the GDP numbers but it doesn't help anyone. Also, US is running war time deficits which also boosts the GDP.
It is not hard to have good GDP if the government is financing everyone. That's why you need to look at inflation numbers and real wages.
Unfortunately most people are economically and financially illiterate and fall for the gaslighting of the Biden administration and state media apparatchiks like Paul Krugman.
That is the point. I know that Covid is an external shock that derailed the numbers. But please, do not gaslight people that everything is fine and economy is stronger and better than ever. It WAS much better under Trump, that is a fact.
It is not hard to have good GDP if the government is financing everyone. That's why you need to look at inflation numbers and real wages.
Unfortunately most people are economically and financially illiterate and fall for the gaslighting of the Biden administration and state media apparatchiks like Paul Krugman.
That is the point. I know that Covid is an external shock that derailed the numbers. But please, do not gaslight people that everything is fine and economy is stronger and better than ever. It WAS much better under Trump, that is a fact.
philostam
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Foreign policy was also much better under Trump. I remember how German officials laughed at him during one event where he warned Germany that relying so much on Russians for energy puts them in a weak positions and they should rethink their strategy of closing down nuclear plants. Maybe if they listen to Trump, German manufacturing would not be completely destroyed by Russian invasion.
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